Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!

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Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by Christophe » 01/02/21, 17:40

First summary sheet in a series of 6 sheets on scientific and psychological methods that I just found and that go very well with the current contextual mood.

Atmosphere that gives more voice toultracrepidarianism only true specialists ... Specialists who are often a little lost at the moment (it must be said) so their duty of reserve prohibits any excessively speculative communication ... Except among certain Marseillais! : Mrgreen:

So here is the first one that should please Izentrop! (correlation is not causation ... apply now to the vaccination campaign in Israel... blows!)

Example 5) is completely fortuitous and I did not understand the relationship with the Stork well ... a shame for an Alsatian! : Mrgreen:

Correlation.jpg
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 01/02/21, 18:00

What if she suffered from the box because she was hip?Image
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by Christophe » 01/02/21, 18:05

Little pig !

Well I add a layer!

Honest be who hurts there hip? : Mrgreen:
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by pedrodelavega » 01/02/21, 18:44

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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by Christophe » 02/02/21, 08:55

Trivial the chocolate thing ... but his initial claim is true or is he a conspirator?

I never heard the press say that the Nobel Prize and chocolate were linked ...

Episode 2 is here: society-and-philosophy / law-of-brandolini-or-the-principle-of-asymmetry-du-barratin-des-fake-news-t16737.html
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by izentrop » 02/02/21, 16:59

Christophe wrote:Image

1) Many covid patients have recovered after taking HCQ => "HCQ cured covid" = Raoult effect : Mrgreen:

ABC did not understand the 4 : Twisted:

The 5: coincidence is not causation, it could also have had a headache for another cause.
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 02/02/21, 17:37

izentrop wrote:The 5: coincidence is not causation, it could also have had a headache for another cause.

Ma 6: When do you cause us iridology, after numerology? I look forward... : Mrgreen:
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by ABC2019 » 03/02/21, 03:54

izentrop wrote:ABC did not understand the 4 : Twisted:

thank you, I know what feedback is, and I even know it's quantified by a feedback factor f (which ultimately amplifies the phenomenon by 1 + f + f ^ 2 = 1 / (1-f In the case of permafrost, I just asked what the value of f was, I'm still waiting.
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by reinoso » 03/02/21, 09:06

ABC2019 wrote:thank you, I know what feedback is, and I even know it's quantified by a feedback factor f (which ultimately amplifies the phenomenon by 1 + f + f ^ 2 = 1 / (1-f In the case of permafrost, I just asked what the value of f was, I'm still waiting.


long live abc the king of feedback!

here is a book which analyzes climate feedback:
https://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/pu ... DR_JLD.pdf
difficult to summarize this book with a 3rd degree equation which is solved as follows:
http://serge.mehl.free.fr/anx/equ_deg3.html
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Re: Correlation and causality: the Stork effect!




by ABC2019 » 03/02/21, 09:15

reinoso wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:thank you, I know what feedback is, and I even know it's quantified by a feedback factor f (which ultimately amplifies the phenomenon by 1 + f + f ^ 2 = 1 / (1-f In the case of permafrost, I just asked what the value of f was, I'm still waiting.


long live abc the king of feedback!

here is a book which analyzes climate feedback:
https://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/pu ... DR_JLD.pdf

thanks for this reference, but I haven't seen what page he talks about permafrost on. He talks about temperature feedbacks on carbon sinks, that is, on the ocean's capacity to absorb excess CO2, but not methane.
It does seem to say so that it is not very important, thank you for this confirmation.
But I do not see the relation with the equations of the 3rd degree.
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