The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2

Humanitarian catastrophes (including resource wars and conflicts), natural, climate and industrial (except nuclear or oil forum fossil and nuclear energy). Pollution of the sea and oceans.
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Obamot
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Obamot » 08/07/20, 02:33

sicetaitsimple wrote:
Obamot wrote:Without wishing to be categorical, winters must be terrible in the ice age


There I am sawed ..... What relevance!

And you, what impertinence. I can also take one of your sentences out of context and make you pass for an idiot. But note that it is not necessary, you manage very well without anyone to achieve this same result.

sicetaitsimple wrote: uh, on Talk about [ ...]

Who is this “on" again?!?!?!? Would you really be several in your skull? Ouch!

sicetaitsimple wrote: modifications over a few decades, possibly a hundred depending on certain models,

Ah but no, not at all, we are talking about demonstrating or not if the CR is of anthropogenic origin (or not) and I am only transmitting what some say (in one direction as in the other) although in this case, zoom out is essential!

sicetaitsimple wrote: when we talk about anthropogenic warming, whatever his opinion on the subject and the relevance of the models. The warming of anthropogenic origin two centuries ago, bof bof.

You don't know the fractals! so-so...

sicetaitsimple wrote: Over a few hundred thousand years, we are talking about something else.

You don't know Milankovitch cycles.

Will you allow me to shift onto something else? Not that it worked ...
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by ABC2019 » 08/07/20, 06:15

Obamot wrote:You, you, you ... I knew you would say that ... but no, because I was very very careful what I said, I know you, you won't get me on this one no more. The graph is one of many that demonstrates it, it is an element of continuity, so you say anything.

Reread: When you understand this sentence, which is not trivial:
Obamot wrote:BUT you forgot the little sentence:
- “The oceans reject it the most (hot periods) but also absorb it the most (cold periods)"


It is the oceans that RELEASE the most, before man realizes that he could burn fossils, but since then everything has changed!
And the variations in concentration due to the oceans occur at rates much less than 10 Gt / year, or 2 ppm per year. The order of magnitude is rather 100 ppm over 10 years or 000 ppm / ab, therefore 0,01 times less.
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Obamot » 08/07/20, 07:59

ABC2019 wrote:
Obamot wrote:BUT you forgot the little sentence:
- “The oceans reject it the most (hot periods) but also absorb it the most (cold periods)"


It is the oceans that RELEASE the most, before man realizes that he could burn fossils, but since then everything has changed!
And the variations in concentration due to the oceans occur at rates much less than 10 Gt / year, or 2 ppm per year. The order of magnitude is rather 100 ppm over 10 years or 000 ppm / ab, therefore 0,01 times less.

No, try again with a link then ...? :D

Because the peaks of Co2 (according to the samples of the ice cores of Vostock,) show that the release of Co2 from the Oceans takes 2,5 thousand years, and sawtooth for 40'000 years to return there, c is not the same ...: (green arrows)

C479D8F2-205D-491D-B5CC-A556E49E7DBE.jpeg
C479D8F2-205D-491D-B5CC-A556E49E7DBE.jpeg (135.86 Kio) Consulté 2027 fois


What will be your “Version 3.0” tttttrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ..... Suspense? :D no, not even ... surely there will be a 4.0 : Mrgreen:
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by ABC2019 » 08/07/20, 08:49

Obamot wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
Obamot wrote:BUT you forgot the little sentence:
- “The oceans reject it the most (hot periods) but also absorb it the most (cold periods)"


It is the oceans that RELEASE the most, before man realizes that he could burn fossils, but since then everything has changed!
And the variations in concentration due to the oceans occur at rates much less than 10 Gt / year, or 2 ppm per year. The order of magnitude is rather 100 ppm over 10 years or 000 ppm / ab, therefore 0,01 times less.

No, try again with a link then ...? :D

Because the peaks of Co2 (according to the samples of the ice cores of Vostock,) show that the release of Co2 from the Oceans takes 2,5 thousand years, and sawtooth for 40'000 years to return there, c is not the same ...: (green arrows)

me on your graph I see that it takes a graduation is 10 000 years to go up, but if you value your 2500 years, it always makes that 0,4 ppm per year is 5 times slower than now, that means that NET exchanges with the ocean are at best 20% of current emissions or 7 GtCO2 / year, not 700 !!!
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Obamot » 08/07/20, 12:30

Well it's not “my table” I took what I had on hand, I saw that the timescale was messy (I told myself that there had been zoomed in on the graph but not on the scale and I told myself that it was going to be enjoyable and that you were going to jump on the occasion: BINGO : Cheesy: ), what I note above all, AND THAT WAS WHY I HAD ADDED THE GREEN ARROWS is that the release of Co2 is relatively 10x faster compared to absorption!

And the so-called Milankovitch cycle to which I refer is indeed 40 years is it is quite correct, only the regularity of the peaks is not there but overall, it is fair and not disputed! This is what I wanted to illustrate.

Milutin Milankovitch's theory: Milankovitch cycles
The obliquity of the ecliptic. The angle formed by the direction of the poles and that of the normal to the plane of the ecliptic is not constant. It varies between 22 ° and 24,5 ° following a period of 41.000 years.


Source: Futura Science


Then, if you are interested, I can find you a rhetorical trick to prove that seen from the ISS, the earth is flat! :D
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Paul72 » 08/07/20, 16:52

ABC2019 wrote:
Paul72 wrote:another reading (do not stop at the title ...) which briefly explains the evolutions of the new climate models, thanks to a greater calculation capacity (among others) and therefore a greater finesse of the projections (which seem to show a even greater sensitivity to warming than predicted by previous models).

http://www.carbone4.com/analyse-nouvell ... imatiques/


to pretend that increasing the calculation capacity of a simulation makes it fairer is just a shameless lie.

In addition, the 7 ° C is anyway calculated in a scenario 8.5 completely unrealistic.

But hey as long as it allows you to write teasing and catastrophic articles eh ... well, I wonder what Professor Raoult would think!


That's why I warned not to stop at the touting title. There are more nuanced data in the rest of the publication.

Here. I believe that we hold our new master in climatology: welcome Obamot !!! : Mrgreen:
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by ENERC » 08/07/20, 19:22

Paul72 wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
Paul72 wrote:another reading (do not stop at the title ...) which briefly explains the evolutions of the new climate models, thanks to a greater calculation capacity (among others) and therefore a greater finesse of the projections (which seem to show a even greater sensitivity to warming than predicted by previous models).

http://www.carbone4.com/analyse-nouvell ... imatiques/


to pretend that increasing the calculation capacity of a simulation makes it fairer is just a shameless lie.

In addition, the 7 ° C is anyway calculated in a scenario 8.5 completely unrealistic.

But hey as long as it allows you to write teasing and catastrophic articles eh ... well, I wonder what Professor Raoult would think!


That's why I warned not to stop at the touting title. There are more nuanced data in the rest of the publication.

Here. I believe that we hold our new master in climatology: welcome Obamot !!! : Mrgreen:


I have a little the impression that we are in a great uncertainty about the impacts linked to water vapor. I thought about it by comparing the time during confinement and now: during confinement: not a cloud, very low humidity, low temperatures in the morning which rose slowly despite very strong sunshine.
In recent days, the air is very humid, temperatures are mild at night, the temperature rises very quickly as soon as there are no more clouds and remains almost constant under the clouds (pure greenhouse effect).
By just putting your nose out:
- if the air is dry the average temperatures are rather low (at our latitudes of course)
- if the air is humid and cloudless, it is the oven quickly
- as soon as the clouds form the temperature stabilizes

So forecasting tomorrow's climate means knowing precisely what the humidity will be and the average cloud cover. Broad topic!

Increasing the computing power makes it possible to refine the models: you have to see that the 7-day forecast requires gigantic calculators.
Calculating the humidity and the average cloud cover is far from simple given the number of parameters in games.

We are well aware of the CO2 and methane impacts. The effect of water vapor will take longer.
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Obamot » 08/07/20, 23:09

Paul72 wrote:Here. I believe we hold our new master in climatology : welcome Obamot !!! : Mrgreen:

Kilkoolol! 8) :D

I lend myself to the game of this debate when I see things that do not fit in the arguments, So no, there is no "master in climatology" that stands : Cheesy: but there are some who have a banter not possible to swing false things with a plumb of polar bear : Cheesy: I might as well be wrong, but it will be of no consequence. Because......

For me there is no debate but it amuses me, as long as I start from the principle that even climatoseptics should campaign for the reduction of greenhouse gases, if only to not worsen the situation !! ! Whatever the cause, ALL effects should be limited!
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by Exnihiloest » 28/07/20, 09:35

New publication from John Christy and Ross McKitrick comparing climate model predictions to observations.
None of the 38 models available with the CMIP6 archive correctly predict neither the temperatures of the tropical mid-troposphere, nor the global temperatures. All the models overestimate the climate sensitivity, and most often statistically significantly.

Yet it is on these models that serve as an argument for the IPCC to attribute almost all of the observed warming to humanity and green politicians to accelerate "energy transition" policies.
Carelessly launching into calculations ends up spending hours calculating rubbish good for the trash. For almost 30 years, climate modellers have massively calculated the averages of sets on systems of equations whose numerical solutions are known to diverge rapidly from reality.

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001281
"It has long been known that previous generations of climate models exhibit excessive rates of warming in the tropical troposphere. With the release of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) climate model archive, we can now update the comparison. We examined historical (posterior) executions of 38 CMIP6 models in which models were executed using historically observed forcings. We focused on the 1979-2014 interval, the maximum for which all models and observational data are available and for which the models were run with historical forcings. What was once a tropical bias is now global. All models are warming faster than observations in the lower and mid-troposphere, the tropics and globally. On average, and in most individual cases, the difference in trend is significant. Warming trends in models tend to increase with the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) model, and we present evidence that the distribution of ECS values ​​in the model is unrealistically high.."
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Re: The fable of anthropogenic warming and the fight against CO2




by izentrop » 28/07/20, 11:15

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