Earthquake: Earthquake activity in the Earth she accelerates?

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Christophe
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by Christophe » 10/09/11, 20:41

Currently on Arte:

1755 - The earth trembles in Lisbon (ARTE)

On Saturday November 1, 1755, Lisbon and its approximately 235 inhabitants were hit by three violent earthquakes, responsible for triggering several tidal waves and a big fire. The city, capital of a flourishing colonial empire, is almost completely destroyed and 000 victims are to be deplored - many having perished under the rubble of the churches, where they attended the office of All Saints' Day. The magnitude of the earthquake is such that oscillations could be felt as far as Scotland
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by dedeleco » 10/09/11, 21:56

Tsunami and deposits approximately every 2000 years !!
Drift between plates of a few mm per year.
With stronger earthquakes and tsunamis !!!
In Japan that of March 11 every 1000 years approximately !!
Messina in 1908, 80000 words by tsunami.
Him, close to a by century region Calabria, Sicily, Malta.

Animal divination gift !!! mystery ????
2 minutes before!
3 shakes separated by about 1 min over 10 minutes.

Tremor all over Europe, 9,5 million km2 (dimension of Australia) !!!!
In my opinion proof that all of Europe makes a single solid and hard block. .
Magnitude around 8,7 estimated.
Fault at least 200Km long which remains to be determined.
Tsunami, precursor the sea withdraws, then returns in several waves.
House fires still standing.
30000 to 60000 dead.
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tremblemen ... e_Lisbonne
http://superstorm.forumactif.com/t457-t ... ne-de-1755
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by Christophe » 27/02/12, 11:24

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by dedeleco » 27/02/12, 12:01

An earthquake can occur anywhere on earth, simply one has the memory too short, which makes and will make many more dead and 1812 is not very old and will certainly reproduce, but when ???.
It would take a memory over 5000 to 10000 years, heavy work of geologist.
In France and Italy, we will be entitled !!!
http://www.nicematin.com/article/dernie ... 68350.html

The next one announced in the fairly short term is for Tokyo, as in 1923, destabilized by that of March 11, 2011.

Tokyo risks earthquake of magnitude 7 or more by 2016
http://www.lemonde.fr/japon/article/201 ... id=1493262
There is one every 100 years minimum !!


Another in less than 30 years is for the regions of Messina, Sicily, southern Italy, Malta, which seems to occur every 110 years or so for a very long time !!
Almost certainty too !!!
1908 Messina 95000 dead and tsunami almost completely forgotten and which will reproduce in the short term to the nearest 30 !!!
50000 dead in 1783 !!!
60000 dead in 1693 !!!
in 1638 ,,,,
in 1343 with Tsunami also in Naples !!!
in 1169 in Sicily 15000 dead ....
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_s ... _en_Italie
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ea ... s_in_Italy
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terremoti_in_Italia

When you get closer to the Alps, they are less often to the point of forgetting them, whereas they are probably rarer and stronger, force 8 to 9, breaking all of Europe, every 3 to 5000 years ???
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by Grelinette » 27/02/12, 19:23

For information, an earthquake has just shaken the Alpes de Haute Provence, therefore not far from the Cadarache site which hosts, among other things, the ITER project.

Press article for today, February 27, 2012:
4,9 magnitude earthquake shakes the Alpes de Haute-Provence
An earthquake measuring 4,9 on the Richter scale shook the Alpes de Haute-Provence on Sunday evening shortly after 23:30 p.m., without causing any damage. It has been widely felt in the region, from its epicenter about ten kilometers northeast of Barcelonnette, to Nice via Marseille, Les Orres or Antibes.

Barely asleep, already awake. Sunday evening, at 23 p.m., the inhabitants of the Alpes de Haute-Provence were suddenly woken from their sleep by an earthquake with a magnitude of 37 on the Richter scale. The shock did not cause any damage. The epicenter is located 4,9 kilometers from Crévoux and 5 kilometers northeast of Barcelonnette, according to data from the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center. "It is a fairly significant earthquake with a magnitude of 16," comments to the newspaper La Provence the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) in Strasbourg. "It is therefore a phenomenon that is felt over several hundred kilometers", we continue.

The earthquake was felt from Nice to Marseille, passing through Orres and Antibes. A resident of Nice, about 130 km from Barcelonnette, speaks of a "fairly strong shock followed by a rumble". "It was impressive, it lasted 3 to 4 seconds," tells the newspaper a holidaymaker in Les Orres, awake with her daughter. The firemen of the Alpes-Maritimes, Var and Alpes de Haute-Provence indicated that they had received many calls from residents without having to intervene. Seismic activity in France, resulting from the push from the African plate towards the Eurasian plate, has become frequent in recent months in Provence. On February 2, an earthquake with a magnitude of 2,2 occurred in the surrounding area, while an earthquake of 5,3 in northern Italy on January 27 was strongly felt in the region.
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by dedeleco » 27/02/12, 20:24

From the observation of small earthquakes we can assess the probability of those more violent, with the law of
Gutenberg-Richter law
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_de_Gutenberg-Richter

about 10 times less often for a notch more in magnitude (30 in energy):

force 5 once every 10 years in Switzerland or the Alps and once every 100 years for force 6 and 1000 years for force 7 (very destructive) and every 10000 years for force 8 which breaks an entire region, such as Rhône-Alpes !!

That of March 11, 2011 in Japan reproduces every 1100 years approximately, force 9 !!
The Japanese keep the date of the one before: in 869 !!

We are therefore with a risk 10 times lower than in Japan, but not zero at all, just enough to forget it !!!
http://www.bafu.admin.ch/erdbeben/?lang=fr
a little underestimated in South East:
http://www.irma-grenoble.com/05document ... 49&id_DT=5

So given that since 2000 years we do not keep the memory of it, the probability of a force 7 to 8 on the 50 years to come in France is quite strong !!!
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by chatelot16 » 27/02/12, 22:36

Christophe wrote:Good on the Figaro data we can see an increase from 2000 powerful earthquakes but the list is not complete:

Image

I cumulated the scales of richter for each year.

As soon as I have a moment I compile the same wiki data ... since say 1950, it should be enough.


we can notice some strong earthquake in the last years ... but I also notice a certain silence between 1984 and 2004 ... the strongest activity which follows is only one way to make a good average

in sysmology, the lack of earthquake is the most worrying thing ... when there is no regular small tremor there is a risk of getting a big one

this table over 100 years only concerns small earthquakes ... it would be necessary to have the same over 1000 or 10000 years ... but richter was not there to measure them
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by dedeleco » 27/02/12, 23:34

A striking figure, with the year 2000, earthquakes appeared !!!
but in my opinion, the old lists are full of holes with large areas without earthquake detectors.
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress. ... rs-places/

We have much more information from remote regions than before, where the sufferings were in total silence !!!

Image

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress. ... ake-omens/
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress. ... -doomsday/
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by Christophe » 28/02/12, 09:24

Interesting dedeleco graphic, it looks from afar and more complete, to the one I had developed above on this subject ....

Christophe wrote:Here are the results of the method of annual seismic intensity perso = root of the sums of squares of earthquakes per year of magnitude> = 6.0.

Image

I added the exponnentielle type of regression curve (on request I can put the log or linear).

It is impossible not to see that seismic activity is currently accelerating ...

I do not think it's a pipotage statistics / figures as seen (too) often in statistics ... well I do not think ...

I welcome your comments, criticisms or objections ...


I think you are right about the new measurements / detections made because on small earthquakes it is obvious! ("Tsunami" monitoring network set up quickly after December 2004 ...)

In the past it was further than the 60s all the same ...

ps: you must post this blog in subject 2012 : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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by Christophe » 28/02/12, 11:58

http://www.zegreenweb.com/sinformer/le- ... ique,49654

Global warming would boost seismic activity

Many of us have asked ourselves questions following the earthquake and tsunami that struck northeast Japan in March: is global warming favoring earthquakes of high magnitude? Professor at University College London (Great Britain), Bill McGuire is convinced of this.

Author of a column in the Guardian, a column which is a synthesis of his book Awakening the Giant: How climate change causes earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, this climate and geophysical risk expert believes that the rise water, floods and dry spells are not the only corollaries of the rise in the global thermometer. "Our planet is an unimaginably complicated beast, which reacts to a changing climate in many ways in all kinds of different ways," he summarizes in the columns of the British daily newspaper.

Although (we) appear wise and safe, the outer Earth's crust is, according to him, extremely sensitive to changes of this nature. And to evoke the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjöll in April 2010, which we remember that it paralyzed air traffic from and to the arrival of the Old Continent for several weeks, as well as the aforementioned "supersism" of March 2011 (Editor's note: magnitude 9,0 on the Richter scale, it followed two other major earthquakes, one affecting Haiti in January 2010, the other Chile the following month. All three have generated considerable human and financial cost.). "In the light of these events, it seems appropriate to imagine the Earth under our feet as a sleeping giant which turns and turns periodically in response to different disturbances," said Mr. McGuire, who also highlights the amazing upheavals climatic conditions that occurred on Earth during the post-glacial period twenty thousand years ago. In the space of fifteen millennia, from an icy desert the blue planet has become temperate (for example, the ice caps have seen their surface area sharply decrease, resulting in a substantial rise in water levels), which has allowed our civilization to develop and prosper.

Earthquakes in Greenland soon?

"During this extraordinarily dynamic period, (...) the crust bounced and leaned, with a subsequent proliferation of earthquakes and landslides", underlines the expert, according to which the events which bereaved the land of the rising sun last year also demonstrated vividly that when the ground shakes violently under the sea, a tsunami can form. Without a shadow of a doubt, Earth at the dawn of the start of the XNUMXst century has little in common with the frozen world of twenty thousand years ago. However, in places, the earth's crust is currently evolving in depth, which could testify to a chronic reactivity to rising temperatures. In Alaska for example, the glaciers are melting at an impressive rate (Editor's note: this phenomenon has also been observed in the Alps, the Andes, the Pyrenees and the Himalayas, even if a recent study has concluded that there , the phenomenon has been greatly overestimated), some having lost a kilometer thick in the space of a century. Likewise, the permafrost layer (the permanently frozen ground) is shrinking, which has led to an increase in the number of avalanches, and various measurements carried out in Greenland have revealed that the earth's crust under the island is already under construction. to rebound, hence the hypothesis of future earthquakes put forward by certain researchers.

Is it already too late? In any case, humans would have absolutely nothing to lose by reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, knowing that the anthropogenic origin of global warming is no longer in doubt. And even if the link between rising temperatures and intensification of telluric activity had to be refuted by science, to persist in pretending nothing would not serve the interests of the planet. So hers.
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