50 years of "The limits to growth"

Humanitarian catastrophes (including resource wars and conflicts), natural, climate and industrial (except nuclear or oil forum fossil and nuclear energy). Pollution of the sea and oceans.
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Exnihiloest
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by Exnihiloest » 06/05/22, 21:30

Ahmed wrote:Indeed, capitalism cannot be imagined without growth, even if some argue that not all capitalist societies succeed in this exercise, just as not all companies prosper. What is important is not the phenomena, but what connects these phenomena, what leads what I call "minds with drawers" to understand nothing, while explaining everything in a biased way...
It is moreover the progressive generalization of this failure to realize this imperative which leads to the extinction of capitalism and not the shortage or the exhaustion of raw materials, simply because (it is true counter-intuitive) that this could to be a stimulant for this system which adapts perfectly to scarcity, sometimes to the point of simulating it...

If one can imagine capitalism without growth, capitalism cannot imagine itself without growth. You talk about BUSINESSES, and to undertake implies by definition the realization of a project which was previously absent from the landscape, at least for the one who launches it. There is creation, therefore in general growth.
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humus
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 07/05/22, 07:15

Exnihiloest wrote:You underestimate me....
I didn't even bother to find out...
in 40 years, it's over.

Must I repeat again that if in 40 years it's over, you don't realize what "it's over" is and you don't care.
Billions of premature, very premature human deaths, destruction of life on Earth, not to mention the living conditions of the survivors after these 40 years.
Really nothing to celebrate and the cards are in our hands today.


Exnihiloest wrote:Of which act. But the durable is stagnation, and stagnation is decline
In capitalism yes, that's why you have to get out of it.
and sustainability concerns society as a whole, starting with basic needs: food, habitat, water.
As Bill Mollison, co-creator of the concept of permaculture, said: “our problems are incredibly complex, but the solutions are shamefully simple”.
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humus
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 07/05/22, 07:23

Exnihiloest wrote:If one can imagine capitalism without growth, capitalism cannot imagine itself without growth.

Wow, too strong for me. : Mrgreen:

I particularly like the absurd, thank you : Lol: : Lol: : Lol:

You guys are serving me right now, between you and Izy.
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by Exnihiloest » 08/05/22, 22:48

humus wrote:...
Must I repeat again that if in 40 years it's over, you don't realize what "it's over" is and you don't care.
Billions of premature human deaths...


You have the right to repeat your creeds. You might end up believing it, but that doesn't make it real.
In 40 years, the future will be bright, energy will be available in abundance or in the process of being so, the standard of living will be able to increase everywhere, that of education which goes with it, too, it will therefore be the world boom ecological sores that will of course take better care of the planet and future generations.
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 09/05/22, 06:57

Exnihiloest wrote:
humus wrote:...
Must I repeat again that if in 40 years it's over, you don't realize what "it's over" is and you don't care.
Billions of premature human deaths...


You have the right to repeat your creeds. You might end up believing it, but that doesn't make it real.
In 40 years, the future will be bright, energy will be available in abundance or in the process of being so, the standard of living will be able to increase everywhere, that of education which goes with it, too, it will therefore be the world boom ecological sores that will of course take better care of the planet and future generations.

You have the right to repeat your creeds. You may end up believing it (obviously it's done : Mrgreen: ), but that does not make them real.

The future is not provable by anyone BUT there is absolutely no fact, no scientific forecast that comes to corroborate your speech, it is unfortunately even the opposite.
Factually and scientifically, your radiant future that I call for, has little chance of taking place, really very little, given the emergencies and current facts.
We continue to descend towards the bottom of the pool.
There is no scientific study contradicting the work that the Meadows team did in the 70s and for the moment everything is going as planned, the facts confirm... : roll:
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by Exnihiloest » 09/05/22, 20:53

humus wrote:...
The future is not provable by anyone BUT there is absolutely no fact, no scientific forecast that comes to corroborate your speech...

Of course if: fusion.
Another foreseeable fact is the upcoming boom of artificial intelligence. It is time for human intelligence to pass the baton. She has reached her limits.

We continue to descend towards the bottom of the pool.
...

Since the time I hear that, we would already be drowned.
You are conditioned by the green message. He is there to scare you about the future, and force you to adhere to their religion. Free yourself.
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 10/05/22, 09:31

Exnihiloest wrote:
humus wrote:...
The future is not provable by anyone BUT there is absolutely no fact, no scientific forecast that comes to corroborate your speech...

Of course if: fusion.

I'm not insulting you with the little phrase: has the merger been for 40 years, it's for 40 years from now?
Let's admit that it's for tomorrow (which is not the case), isn't it a little too late, given the time for a generalized implementation?
Then as long as the growing and predatory economic model does not change, what will be the consequence of clean and unlimited energy:
Greater destruction of the environment we need to breathe, drink, clean up, etc.

Exnihiloest wrote:It is time for human intelligence to pass the baton. She has reached her limits.

Agree on the finding, disagree on the solution. The exit from the top passes through the Awakening of (human) intelligence, awakening to the spiritual sense, I do not extend.
Betting on AI is the way to avoid evolving yourself, although occasionally AI can be interesting

Exnihiloest wrote:
We continue to descend towards the bottom of the pool.
...

Since the time I heard that...

If I may say so, it's like for the merger except that for the bottom of the pool, the process is engaged and documented, there is no need to innovate, you just have to let it happen and that's good, that's what we do, we don't do anything to prevent it.

Exnihiloest wrote:You are conditioned by the green message. He is there to scare you about the future, and force you to adhere to their religion. Free yourself.

I didn't know you had these talents as an exorcist. : Lol: : Lol: : Lol:
It is true that having fewer insects crushed on the windshield, from a certain point of view, it is progress but not mine.
Biodiversity, in addition to being beautiful, provides resilience in the face of various and varied hazards.
Ecosystems that are too simple are prone to diseases and pests.
No desire to live under a bell of a hydroponic "nature".
We will say that I have been conditioned to be sensitive to the beauty of life and its preservation.
In fact I was not conditioned, I am from birth obviously, my parents not being what one can call ecologists.
Perhaps we will not understand each other on this ground?
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 03/09/22, 09:18

Small update by a PhD student: comparisons between world3 and actual data up to 2019.

WHAT I HAVE DONE
Given the unattractive prospect of societal collapse, I decided to conduct a quantitative comparison between World3 scenarios and available empirical data in 2019. This research was part of my Masters thesis in Sustainability at the University of Harvard, which I finalized last month. Has humanity done better in recent years, or are we still following the BAU script?


Data
I collected data for real-world indicators of population, fertility, mortality, pollution, industrial production, food, services, non-renewable natural resources, well-being human and ecological footprint. These data come from universities, (non-)governmental agencies, United Nations entities and the World Bank. A full description of the data sources can be found in my thesis on the Harvard website.

I plotted the empirical data with the variable in each of the four scenarios made with the latest version of World3. These graphs gave good impressions of the fit, but I also used statistical measures (a normalized root mean square error and a combination of the difference in value and the difference in rate of change) to validate what I have observed in the graphs.

Image
WHAT THIS MEANS
The BAU not being the most suitable scenario does not mean that the collapse of society can be ruled out. The scenario that describes the smallest declines, SW, is also the one that aligns the least closely with the empirical data. Additionally, one of the best fit scenarios, BAU2, shows a collapse pattern. However, the other best-fit scenario, CT, shows only a moderate decline. Both scenarios show a slowdown in industrial and agricultural production. The results of my research at this point therefore indicate that we can expect a halt in economic growth over the next two decades, whether we consider it a good thing or not. (Indeed, as the discerning reader knows, economists and organizations like the IMF have pointed out recently that we are witnessing a “synchronized slowdown in global growth”.) The strongest conclusion that can be drawn from my research is therefore that humanity is on the verge of having limits imposed on its growth rather than consciously choosing its own. However, my research findings also leave open the question of whether subsequent declines in industrial and agricultural production will lead to sharp declines in population and welfare levels.

https://medium.com/revolutions-de-la-tr ... 03fe8aea06
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by Ahmed » 03/09/22, 10:22

The blind spot of this thesis (can we blame it?) is that it only takes into account the external limits and ignores the internal ones. This is also of course the case of the leaders who are in the process of involuntarily accelerating the process: by wanting to fight against inflation and therefore by raising the rate of loans, they are going to saw off the crutch which keeps the whole in a fragile balance...
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Re: 50 years of "The limits to growth"




by humus » 03/09/22, 11:53

Ahmed wrote: ...it only considers outer limits and ignores inner limits.

Can you clarify what you mean by outer and inner limits?

The real limits, the only unsurpassable ones are those of nature. Indeed world 3 works on the real limits.

If you think about the internal limits of capitalism, we can always find unorthodox arrangements, and there is no lack of it, already with Quantitative Easing for example, with the debt that is “rolled up”.
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