Covid and Didier Raoult (supporter of hydroxychloroquine): analyzes on the pandemic

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Robob
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by Robob » 14/07/21, 18:40

ABC2019 wrote:there are different figures circulating, those of Italy give a much greater effectiveness for the fully vaccinated. When you mix different populations, with different rates of protection, your simple calculation no longer works.


Well yes it is a calculation on the 50+: by distributing it over each age bracket, you should have something catastrophic on the very old and excellent on the youngest. Then by taking each result by age group in proportion to the population share by bracket, this will mathematically increase the average efficiency and you will no longer have 65% or 53% but 80%. This is how the labs find 9x% and your car makes 3l until you fill up the first tank. : Mrgreen:

This is also why the results per tranche for Italy appeal to me.

Italy must be mainly PIFzer while UK is Astracécaca.
Is Italy affected by the new Delta variant? Otherwise it makes sense that the results are higher.
The problem being the efficacy over time of the vaccine with a virus which mutates every 3 months: see UK and Israel. Finally, problem for those who choose to get stung, for the labs on the other hand it is quite beneficial, especially when the friends govern and that the friends write the press articles if you see what I am hard-boiled. : Mrgreen:
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by ABC2019 » 14/07/21, 19:17

robob wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:there are different figures circulating, those of Italy give a much greater effectiveness for the fully vaccinated. When you mix different populations, with different rates of protection, your simple calculation no longer works.


Well yes it is a calculation on the 50+: by distributing it over each age bracket, you should have something catastrophic on the very old and excellent on the youngest.

why this ?
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by ABC2019 » 14/07/21, 19:28

robob wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
robob wrote:I do not understand :
You can't exclude the incompletely vaccinated of the general population without excluding the completely vaccinated!Image

well why not? that's what you did in the sample of deaths: you kept only the vaccinated 2 doses and the unvaccinated. But if you do it for deaths, you have to do it for the population as well.

OK but that won't change much:

20 - 425 = 570 vaccinated one dose but not two to be excluded from the general population of 19+, i.e. 685 - 437 = 740. Ratio of vaccinated 133 doses to the general population of 50+ to exclusion of 25 dose 741 493 740/133 25 001 = 360%
(56.8% -78.74%) / ((56.8% -1) * 78.74%) = 64% effectiveness on deaths (instead of 65%).


it's super bizarre these results, according to you there are 5 million unvaccinated against 740 vaccinated a dose, or a factor of 000 between the two, but there would be 7 deaths of unvaccinated against 38 deaths of vaccinated a dose, or just a factor of 18? So receiving a single dose would increase the risk of dying by a factor of 2?

frankly I have doubts ....
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 14/07/21, 20:19

robob wrote: 64% efficiency on deaths (instead of 65%).

My clown method is buried six feet under. Well done robob, keep going!
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by Janic » 15/07/21, 09:23

abcon
So receiving a single dose would increase the risk of dying by a factor of 3?
oh, miracle of miracles, he has a fleeting hint of understanding
frankly I have doubts ....
we no longer say I have doubts, but I have AFIS! : Cheesy:
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by ABC2019 » 15/07/21, 10:47

ABC2019 wrote:
it's super bizarre these results, according to you there are 5 million unvaccinated against 740 vaccinated a dose, or a factor of 000 between the two, but there would be 7 deaths of unvaccinated against 38 deaths of vaccinated a dose, or just a factor of 18? So receiving a single dose would increase the risk of dying by a factor of 2?

frankly I have doubts ....

the answers of the usual funny ones have no interest as usual ... if not to return to the serious arguments, I think that if these figures are confirmed, it is that there are serious confounding factors in the statistics, that is to say that the vaccinated or unvaccinated populations also have other factors that bias the comparison (which is not the case when we do randomized studies).

On a simple theoretical case, let's imagine that the unvaccinated voluntarily hiding in their homes so as not to take any risks and do not see anyone, obviously there would be 0% of cases among the unvaccinated, and therefore 100% would be vaccinated, which is higher than the proportion of vaccinated in the population, and therefore one would conclude that vaccination would increase the risk of contamination - whereas it is the difference in behavior, not the vaccination, which is responsible for it.

All robob-type calculations assume that people behave the same way, and that vaccination works "all other things being equal", which is anything but certain.
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by Janic » 15/07/21, 11:09

abcon
the answers of the usual funny ones have no interest as usual ...

in plain language you recognize that the funny one, that you are, is without interest as usual. Needless to say again, we had all already realized
if not to return to serious arguments,
Ouarf, ouarf! Here it is that he self-decrees serious the bozo, we will have seen everything!
I think that if these figures are confirmed, it is because there are serious confounding factors in the statistics, i.e. the vaccinated or unvaccinated populations also have other factors biasing the comparison (which is not not the case when we do randomized studies).
do you think or you prove?
So go see what Raoult says about randomizations! There you will really learn.
On a simple theoretical case, let's imagine that the unvaccinated voluntarily hiding in their homes so as not to take any risks and do not see anyone, obviously there would be 0% of cases among the unvaccinated, and therefore 100% would be vaccinated, which is higher than the proportion of vaccinated in the population, and therefore one would conclude that vaccination would increase the risk of contamination - whereas it is the difference in behavior, not the vaccination, which is responsible for it.

And Bozo who starts to think, askew obviously, but as it happens to him stealthily. Monsieur de la Palice could not have done better! If my aunt had any, we would call her my uncle!
Askew why? if ALL the unvaccinated were isolated and there were nevertheless some infected among the 100% vaccinated, it is indeed that they would become infected among themselves! Monsieur de la Palice! In other words, math is not your strong point, nor logic! : roll:
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by ABC2019 » 15/07/21, 11:18

and a completely empty message from more of the balloon ...
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by Janic » 15/07/21, 11:41

ABC2019 »15/07/21, 11:18
and a completely empty message from more of the balloon ...
says the ignoramus who realizes that all his arguments are just a balloon!
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Re: Resignation of Professor Didier Raoult, supporter of Hydroxychloroquine, from the Covid19 Scientific Council




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 15/07/21, 14:25

(Bozo, a comical fan with stale air from the septic tank of his empty skull, allows himself to "talk balloon" while "my method" still makes people laugh in the cottages ... swollen ... like what he is trying to denounce !)
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