Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

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izentrop
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by izentrop » 21/04/20, 14:37

As we now know that the mask is effective, if from May 11, everyone wears it and the instructions are generally followed, while resuming work, the R0 may be stabilized at a value less than 1, which will allow the epidemic to stop (Mea culpa, I confused R0 and collective immunity rate).
The ROE for SARS in 2003 was 3 and was reduced to 0,5 which stopped the epidemic.
Collective immunity
Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have decided not to slow down R0 by confining the population but rather to bet on collective immunity. If the R0 is greater than 1, the contaminations increase until the epidemic peaks and eventually decreases due to the acquisition of collective immunity by the population. It is reached when 50% to 60% of the population has been infected and has therefore produced antibodies

As explained by Dr Gérald Kierzek, emergency doctor at the Hôtel-Dieu (Paris) on the set of the Quotidien program on April 16: "On May 11 we open and let the virus circulate, that's what 'we call collective immunity (...) We will have the effects at the beginning of June. We will see what happens, if we have to close a little or a lot "adding that in" the month of June "we will be confined if there is a second wave ".
https://sante.journaldesfemmes.fr/fiche ... nt-france/
In France, if we do not exceed 1000 deaths per day, no problem we manage ... : Twisted:

We have to get out of this pandemic. : Wink:
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 23/04/20, 02:21

Christophe wrote:Containment in the French Suburbs:

Social mediation through Covid-19! Very strong! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:


Some will still accuse me of wanting to make my self-proclaimed prophet ...

Now we have to find admirable excuses for the + 63% mortality in the suburbs : Shock:
https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/entry/pou ... e5b83b9480

Where was Macron 2 weeks ago in a virtual crowd ???
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 28/04/20, 01:33

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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 28/04/20, 01:36

In other words: + 60 to 90 new cases each month?
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by izentrop » 28/04/20, 09:37

Christophe wrote:In other words: + 60 to 90 new cases each month?
Not once collective immunity is reached and you still have to hope for a vaccine soon enough.
Defeatist goes : Wink:

Seen as it is on, we may be among the first to reach R0 <1, while the Chinese will still be in confinement.
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 28/04/20, 12:34

izentrop wrote:
Christophe wrote:In other words: + 60 to 90 new cases each month?
Not once collective immunity is reached and you still have to hope for a vaccine soon enough.
Defeatist goes : Wink:


So it takes 60 to 70% of the immunized population to obtain collective immunity, right?

If we retain 60% and 90 new cases per month, we obtain for France: 000 * 70 / 0.6 = 0.09 months before arriving there! Or more than 467 years! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

Yes, hope gives life ... some are still waiting for the AIDS vaccine ... Well, it's also been 38 years since we discovered AIDS !! : Cheesy:

izentrop wrote:Seen as it is on, we may be among the first to reach R0 <1, while the Chinese will still be in confinement.


Uh we are not already at R0 of 0.5 ??
Or is it the R1 of 0.5? I don't know these notions well ...

Can you give us an overview of the Rx?
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by ABC2019 » 28/04/20, 12:44

Christophe wrote:
izentrop wrote:
Christophe wrote:In other words: + 60 to 90 new cases each month?
Not once collective immunity is reached and you still have to hope for a vaccine soon enough.
Defeatist goes : Wink:


So it takes 60 to 70% of the immunized population to obtain collective immunity, right?

If we retain 60% and 90 new cases per month, we obtain for France: 000 * 70 / 0.6 = 0.09 months before arriving there! Or more than 467 years! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

fortunately, we probably only detect one case in 20 or 30, so in fact it rather waits between 1 or 2 years. Which will already cause a lot of worries ...
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 28/04/20, 12:46

Ah yes in this case ...

Let no one speak to me about scientific rigor about this epidemic !!! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by ENERC » 28/04/20, 12:50

The R0 is 0,6 currently in mainland France.
It is 0,9 in Germany, which has slightly relaxed containment. Above 1, it is the exponential resumption of the epidemic.

This disease will be like HIV, but worse because unlike HIV there is no measure to avoid it 100%.
I do not even believe in vaccination, because as with the flu immunity will be short and no question of vaccinating 7 billion people every 6 months.
The real hope is to find drugs to avoid the very serious forms. It seems to be on the right track.

fortunately, we probably only detect one case in 20 or 30, so in fact it rather waits between 1 or 2 years. Which will already cause a lot of worries ...

In most departments, we are below 2% of people who have been infected (data by serological survey). So we are very far from the goal.
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London




by Christophe » 05/04/21, 13:51

Never 3 without 4?

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