Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
ABC take off your blinders, the rate for Germany is not a generality. https://sciencepost.fr/coronavirus-comm ... allemagne/
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
GuyGadebois wrote:ABC2019 wrote:has 40 dead and admitting 000% of lethality, we are already 0,5 million infected (8 times higher than the size of the graph shown ...)
Thank you, oh great Statisticos ...
thank you for this still very interesting contribution
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
izentrop wrote:ABC take off your blinders, the rate for Germany is not a generality. https://sciencepost.fr/coronavirus-comm ... allemagne/
insofar as the low German rate is explained by more massive screening, it is therefore probably closer to reality. It is rather the high rates which are not very credible since there is more chance of underestimating the number of patients by lack of tests, than the opposite. There are other estimates like those of the Diamond Princess which revolve around the same values when we correct for demography.
In any case, we have to hope that the real rate is around 0,5%, which would limit the number of deaths in France with 40 million infected to around 200 dead, which is already a lot: if the rate is higher, it will go up as much.
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
You did not look at the link because on March 25, date of the article it was 0.5% because it was a majority of young people who were diagnosed.ABC2019 wrote:In any case, we have to hope that the real rate is around 0,5%, which would limit the number of deaths in France with 40 million infected to around 200 dead, which is already a lot: if the rate is higher, it will go up as much.
Today it's 3.1% https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
We will have the final figure when the R0 is reached, ie 60% of the contaminated population.
mathematicians from Dartmouth College (United States) today suggest, rather than testing only symptomatic people, to test populations randomly. By following an approach similar to that used for carrying out political polls, for example. "If the tests are done correctly, the infection and case fatality rates in the random sample should be very close to the real rates in the general population," the researchers said in a statement on The Conversation.
They take the example of a population of 100 individuals, 60 of which are said to be infected and of which five people are said to have been deplored.
The case fatality rate would then be 8,3%. https://www.futura-sciences.com/sante/a ... ion-80583/
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
izentrop wrote:ABC take off your blinders, the rate for Germany is not a generality. https://sciencepost.fr/coronavirus-comm ... allemagne/
It's been 3 weeks that Germany is no longer at 0,5% ... in short please do not broadcast outdated information ... thank you
ps: ok with your next message ...
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
izentrop wrote:You did not look at the link because on March 25, date of the article it was 0.5% because it was a majority of young people who were diagnosed.ABC2019 wrote:In any case, we have to hope that the real rate is around 0,5%, which would limit the number of deaths in France with 40 million infected to around 200 dead, which is already a lot: if the rate is higher, it will go up as much.
Today it's 3.1% https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
We will have the final figure when the R0 is reached, ie 60% of the contaminated population.mathematicians from Dartmouth College (United States) today suggest, rather than testing only symptomatic people, to test populations randomly. By following an approach similar to that used for carrying out political polls, for example. "If the tests are done correctly, the infection and case fatality rates in the random sample should be very close to the real rates in the general population," the researchers said in a statement on The Conversation.
They take the example of a population of 100 individuals, 60 of which are said to be infected and of which five people are said to have been deplored.
The case fatality rate would then be 8,3%. https://www.futura-sciences.com/sante/a ... ion-80583/
Of course, but I was not basing myself on the officially published mortality rates, which depend too much on the number of people tested, but on studies precisely where we systematically tested and found many more asymptomatic infected people than we thought:
https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/739205/arti ... s-que-l-ne
the report (in german): https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/file ... gelt_0.pdf
on the Diamond princess, we are at 14 dead for 700 cases or 2% but with a lot of elderly people (average age of the passengers 69 years, who made 2/3 of the people present)
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
Certainly also,ABC2019 wrote:Of course, but I was not basing myself on the officially published mortality rates, which depend too much on the number of people tested, but on studies precisely where we systematically tested and found many more asymptomatic infected people than we thought: https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/739205/arti ... what is it
the report (in german): https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/file ...gelt_0.pdf
on the Diamond princess, we are at 14 dead for 700 cases or 2% but with a lot of elderly people (average age of the passengers 69 years, who made 2/3 of the people present)
If we look at all this in detail, these are not significant "studies". We only noticed the contamination on the Diamond princess when some had been unloaded and contaminated in their country.
In all the cases listed in your link, it is thanks to confinement that this low rate was obtained.at the time of quarantine (February 5), 1 person could infect more than 7 others. The rate of spread was probably also high (estimated to be between 2 and 3 in the general population) due to the cramped and crowded conditions on board. Subsequently, when passengers were locked in their cabins for at least 2 weeks, the average number of people infected with another one fell below 1. Quarantine may have prevented many infections, says Gerardo Chowell, even if it was not perfect https://www.pourlascience.fr/sr/covid-1 ... -19031.php
I thought it was his benchmark ... Indeed everything evolves very quickly with this COVD 19 ... 20 ...Chris wrote:It's been 3 weeks that Germany is no longer at 0,5% ... in short please do not broadcast outdated information ... thank you
ps: ok with your next message ...
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
A study by the Institut Pasteur .. which seems to confirm the estimate of the fatality rate of 0,5%
https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... e1630298f1
https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... e1630298f1
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
Interesting, some estimate the R0 at 60% of contaminated, it is rather 70% hereABC2019 wrote:A study by the Institut Pasteur .. which seems to confirm the estimate of the fatality rate of 0,5%
https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... e1630298f1
If it's pretty sure, we can already do table corner calculations.we will be very far from the 70% that we would need to be able to leave confinement without a problem, "he underlines.
6% contaminated, 66% of 67 million French people remain to be contaminated = 44 million * 0.005 = 220000 potential deaths.
After that we must be able to calculate the time necessary to reach these 220000 deaths with "a pseudo - linear slope" at 0.5%, knowing that today there are 20265?
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London
I do not see how this new study which affirms that "theoretically" 6% of the French will be affected on May 11 is encouraging ...
This mathematically reduces the death rate ok ... but that's all that is gratifying!
There are so many unknowns and bad news every day ... that most specialists are rather lost!
I'm not one, but I think I understand that a generalized infection greatly increases the risk of mutation! No ?
This mathematically reduces the death rate ok ... but that's all that is gratifying!
There are so many unknowns and bad news every day ... that most specialists are rather lost!
I'm not one, but I think I understand that a generalized infection greatly increases the risk of mutation! No ?
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