1. Covid19 personal risk calculator https://covidtracker.fr/calculateur-risque-covid/ based on the incidence rate in your region
What is the probability that among N people (that I meet), that at least one is a carrier of the Covid?
We have all asked ourselves this question lately: what are the chances that someone who carries the virus will be present at this wedding? How likely is a child in my son's class to have Covid19? With this tool, you can estimate it.
In "incidence rate", enter the incidence rate for the location and the age group that interests you. You will find it in each department (these are the number on the green and red heat maps), or in large cities. In "number of people", enter the number of people on which you want to do this simulation.
You will find the incidence rate for your department and / or your age class here in the Covid HEATMAPs: https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/
Example for Paris: https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/#Paris
- Screenshot_2020-11-05 Dashboard Departments - CovidTracker.png (226.08 KiB) Viewed 2641 times
Example: Belgium is currently at 1774 of incidence rate at the national level (yes yes). Source: https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/def ... ogique.pdf
We have on 25 people crossed 36% of risk that one is carrying the virus ... to 50 people it rises to 59% ... and 235 people to reach 99% (so we understand the restriction of public gatherings. .)
- Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker.png (10.96 KiB) Viewed 2674 times
The rate is much higher in some parts of Belgium, so in Liège, the worst corner of Belgium, the incidence rate is 3300 ... for 25 people, the risk is therefore 57% ...
- Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png (10.78 KiB) Viewed 2674 times
It's up to you to find your incidence rate (based on your location and the age of the people you will meet) and assess your risk ...
2. Confinement duration calculator required according to the configurable effective R https://covidtracker.fr/calculateur-duree-confinement/
This simulator makes it possible to calculate the duration of confinement according to the value of the reproduction rate of the Coronavirus over each week. The higher the reproduction rate, the longer the confinement will have to last. More information on this reproduction rate at the bottom of the page.
Example: this curve of R (fictitious but realistic) would give ... 12 weeks or 3 months of confinement necessary ... to reach the 5000 daily cases (which does not mean the end of the pandemic for all that !!)
- Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker.png (20.28 KiB) Viewed 2674 times
- Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png (37.3 KiB) Viewed 2674 times
The calculator does not say if it is strict or light containment ... I imagine it is strict ...
Interesting ... we know better where we are going (or where we are not going !!)
There is also a "wave comparator" but it is less interesting I find: https://covidtracker.fr/comparateur-vagues/
