Pandemic Coronavirus COVID-19: maps, statistics, analyzes and day-to-day information

[Christophe]

Just Released:

"it is not finished"

Europe to expect second wave of coronavirus contamination

By LEXPRESS.fr with AFP, published on 21/05/2020 at 18:23, updated at 21:03

The question is not whether there will be a new wave, but "when and how big", according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

"The virus is around us, circulating much more than in January and February," warns the director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Europe must prepare for a second wave of the new coronavirus, according to Andrea Ammon, as many countries have initiated deconfinement.

The question is not whether there will be a new wave of contamination, but "when and to what extent", Andrea Ammon said in an interview Thursday with the British daily The Guardian.

(...)

[GuyGadebois]

It is not "a second wave", it is always the first since we have not detected (not tested), not treated and deconfined too early in this case. This is exactly what we could fear: a rebound. That said, it remains for the moment one scenario among others.

[sicetaitsimple]

It is not "a second wave", it is always the first since we have not detected (not tested), not treated and deconfined too early in this case. This is exactly what we could fear: a rebound. That said, it remains for the moment one scenario among others.

This is exactly what we feared: a rebound. That said, this remains for the moment one scenario among others..
Thank you very much for your prognosis, at least you will be sure to have been right in any case!

[Remundo]

it's really difficult to get an idea!

In any case for France, after more than a week of deconfinement, we do not observe a "rebound". We will be more educated in a few more weeks, but it seems that the epidemic is running out of steam.

The European agency speaks here rather of a new epidemic after near extinction.

Frankly, I think it's impossible to say anything.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

The great good news of the day:

https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr ... 31164.html

As Guy says, we sent people home with doliprane.

Telling them to only come forward if they start to have trouble breathing.

But never seek to cure them.

The opposite of what to do in medicine.

And crossing your fingers so that "it passes".

Indeed it happened ... punctually.

And when you read this Doctors have indeed noted an increase in pulmonary embolism in young people aged 20 to 30 years. frankly it doesn't make you want to take doliprane and wait.

In one of his latest Panoramix videos, talking about low frequency scanners alluded to hardly detectable lung problems and the urgent need for FOLLOW-UP ...

[ABC2019]

I don't consider anything.

If you have studies produced them.

That's what's interesting: not my calculations or yours.

I did not do any calculations myself, I just read that all the studies seriously trying to correct detection bias converge towards rates between 0,5 and 1%: absolutely nobody seriously considers that the real lethality is 10% in the general population, nowhere;

https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/753842/arti ... nferieur-1

So the rates of 10% or more are only due to an underestimation of the number of patients by a factor of 10 or 20, which is consistent with the fact that we have practically not tested in France. Now if it amuses you to play with calculations on excel made with false data, you do well as you want ...

[ABC2019]

It is not "a second wave", it is always the first since we have not detected (not tested), not treated and deconfined too early in this case. This is exactly what we could fear: a rebound. That said, it remains for the moment one scenario among others.

there are data on the total mortality observed, all causes combined, which clearly show that the first wave has passed anyway ...

https://rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/l-insee- ... 15032.html

and that's totally independent of the tests.

Note that young people die significantly less: probably fewer suicides (more monitored) and fewer road accidents with confinement.

[GuyGadebois]

It is not "a second wave", it is always the first since we have not detected (not tested), not treated and deconfined too early in this case. This is exactly what we could fear: a rebound. That said, it remains for the moment one scenario among others.

there are data on total observed mortality, all causes combined, which clearly show that the first wave has passed anyway

Voui voui .... real!

CovidMonde21-05-2020.JPG (195.22 KiB) Viewed 1697 times

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Christophe]

Same info. on video :

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

I don't consider anything.

If you have studies produced them.

That's what's interesting: not my calculations or yours.

I did not do any calculations myself, I just read that all the studies seriously trying to correct detection bias converge towards rates between 0,5 and 1%: absolutely nobody seriously considers that the real lethality is 10% in the general population, nowhere;

https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/753842/arti ... nferieur-1

So the rates of 10% or more are only due to an underestimation of the number of patients by a factor of 10 or 20, which is consistent with the fact that we have practically not tested in France. Now if it amuses you to play with calculations on excel made with false data, you do well as you want ...

How is the study of the Institut Pasteur only a pre-print and has not been validated by peers?

Good go gift it goes for this time.

Especially since it must be the 3rd time that we have been talking about case fatality rates and that your conclusion has been known for a long time

Conclusion: Raoult does not prevent any death, contrary to the opinions of the great epidemiologists who post on this forum. But everyone can be wrong eh!

And that to do this and demonstrate the uselessness of IHU treatment nothing like having a very large number of positives is that right?

But be careful in doing so .... what does that give as the case fatality rate for those under 50 in Pasteur's study?