Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?

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Christophe
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Christophe » 30/06/16, 19:31

Now do you understand why I was talking about FARCE?

Brexit is just one more mass manipulation!

And everyone plunges head first into it!
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Philippe Schutt » 30/06/16, 19:37

Did67 wrote:UK outside the EU will be more of a tax haven. And a little more "anti-social" (than it already is) ...

So we can blame the EU for a lot.

But to think that Brexit is better, for the British, I hear, I ask to see.

I maintain my conviction: that Scotland should be allowed to democratically choose its future (referendum), that it should join the European Union and adopt the euro. And the decline of the English empire will go quickly, very quickly ... And the old idiots who generally wanted that (for fear, by racism also let's be clear) will see social systems collapse (because not funded in a system by capitalization - the amount of pensions will depend on the market value of the funds!). The English youth will, I hope for them, have enough energy to emigrate to the republics where it will be better: Ireland, Scotland ... We will talk about it in 10 years ??? (if I'm still here!).

NB: One thing is that the stock markets have "erased" the shocks. It does not mean anything. They always erase, all the shocks ... It's virtual.

The pound remains low, even if the bottom seems to have been reached (about - 15% compared to before the debate then the decision on Brexit), and the first labels (of price) begin to waltz across the Channel ... pensions of British people living in France fall by the same amount. Or their ability to travel. Gradually, the prices of everything they consume (a lot, in fact!) Will go up as much ... Honestly, I would be English, I would worry. I intended to visit England (the famous and wonderful garden of Kew); I enjoy!

http://www.boursorama.com/bourse/cours/ ... le=1xGBPVS

[be careful, it's the value of the euro in pounds, which goes up, when the pound goes down]


Switzerland is not in the EU either. I think that overall the real effect on the standard of living of the English will be negligible. Positive on one side, negative on the other, but more transparent and more democratic. For Scotland's sake, with the non-double taxation agreements being in the EU does nothing. Headquarters can very well stay in London ...
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Obamot » 30/06/16, 19:44

What do you want, "European Highway Code" question, these people have always been driving the wrong way, how would you like them to understand anything about politics. : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

Did67 wrote:
Obamot wrote:
Did67: the confiscation of democracy is not yet dictatorship, but it is a first step ... Let us say that it is the dictatorial formula that people are still ready to "cash" in our time.

I was talking about the assumption that an English "leader" decides to do the opposite of what the English people have decided by referendum.
Whether he does it or not, democracy is confiscated as long as such a referendum was not born of a popular initiative.

Did67 wrote:It would be a decision of a "dictatorial" nature (identical to the behavior of a dictator, who decides and carries out the decisions which seem good to him, - or sometimes, which crossed his mind like a desire to piss ... without anything ask the people or their representatives).

Yes, that I understood what you wanted to tell us, we do not call that a dictatorship, it is a parliamentary monarchy or the royal family does not take a political position (well .... heuuuuuh ... )

Did67 wrote:Of course, all the decisions and measures taken should be of this nature for a country to become a dictatorship ...

I understand well...
But that does not invalidate the fact that it is a confiscation of democracy. It is a first step and opposite another step to say that it does not suit the voters .... Aaaah the voters, if at least the democracies had not invented the voters. : Mrgreen:
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Did67 » 30/06/16, 19:51

edit: @Philippe Schutt

There is at least one point where the situation plays out: if you set up a factory in the EU, your product circulates without formality throughout the EU, which is still a big market.

If you're not there, it's a little more complicated. And despite the free trade agreements, there are still import taxes ... Very reduced. But there are still some.

http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/cu ... dex_fr.htm

I think that many of the headquarters (and even factories) of the large groups are in London because: a) speak English; b) are very liberal and "accommodating" - taxation, labor law; c) but are still in the EU (so no barriers).

If c) falls, I really do not see why they would not go to Ireland (or Scotland if this one obtains its independence).

Afterwards, in fact, the great economists say one thing and its opposite. So we poor eccentric talkers !!!!

I can, of course, be 100% wrong. See you in 10 years (if I'm still here).

I think the UK can lose out. Again, especially if Scotland obtains independence and stays in the EU.
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by chatelot16 » 30/06/16, 20:44

the english parliament is against the exit of europe, it is thus badly placed to execute what decided the referendum ... solution that the deputies resign to cause a new election ... and if the new election elects deputies always favorable to stay in europe, it will prove that the referendum is not worth much

currently it seems that those who campaigned to leave europe do not want to do the job
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by sen-no-sen » 30/06/16, 20:59

An interesting point to note for the future, Scotland wants to dissociate itself from the rest of the United Kingdom ... but to vote widely to stay in the European Union.
The development of the EU has exacerbated the regionalism of several countries ... so watch out.
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Obamot » 30/06/16, 21:34

There could be a way out if Scotland put on a veto.
Only and both are so proud that London will never accept to fold before Scotland, it is enough to see how long the confrontation between Irish south and north lasted.

In place of the Scottish leaders, I would declare the referendum procedure null, as long as it was not consulted to launch it (the same in Ireland). And then Scotland could continue to do with Europe, as if it were still a de facto member of the Union.

On the other hand, like Raymon, I would be very happy with the brexit if the European elites were able to agree to make any lobbying outlaw. It would be the first tangible measure that the message was received. But there I am right in the utopia of believing that Europe is a union for the good of the people.
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Gaston » 01/07/16, 08:43

chatelot16 wrote:the english parliament is against the exit of europe, it is thus badly placed to execute what decided the referendum ... solution that the deputies resign to cause a new election ... and if the new election elects deputies always favorable to stay in europe, it will prove that the referendum is not worth much
+1
That's exactly what I say, but Did67 doesn't believe me : Mrgreen:

Did67 wrote:
Gaston wrote:There is an obligation for the UK parliament to approve the request to apply Article 50.
It seems to me that you are "inventing" law, there
The 2009 Lisbon Treaty recognizes the right of any member state to decide, in accordance with its constitutional rules, to withdraw from the Union.
The important point is "in accordance with its constitutional rules".
Actually, to comply with its constitutional rules, the United Kingdom must go through a vote of consist of parliament to activate article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

Otherwise, everything is very well summarized in this article from the JDD.
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Did67 » 01/07/16, 10:50

Gaston wrote:That's exactly what I say, but Did67 doesn't believe me : Mrgreen:


As already said, I do not pretend to be right. I express my opinion, an opinion ... Only the future will say if the situation improves significantly in UK (or what will remain) or if it gets worse (compared to the rest of the EU or compared to those who have joined the EU).

But factually, on the question of the opinion of the current British parliament, I do not understand you. We don't speak the same language ???

On June 30, at 10 a.m., I wrote the first one (and it's still online on page 57):

"They are very largely: 75% of the British parliament is to stay in the EU."

Let me explain the difference with what chatelot writes and what you like, blaming yourself for not believing yourself:

"the english parliament is against leaving europe"

Being against the exit or being to stay in it is the same thing, right?

I deduced from it, but only deduced, that if parliament were to be consulted or even could be consulted or had to ratify the result of the referendum, it would be extremely simple for Cameron to submit this to the vote of the current parliament, which would automatically cancel the result of the referendum ... AND everything would continue as before.

I therefore deduce that the referendum is, in law, superior to the vote of the parliament - which seems logical to me as regards a direct expression of the people (against an expression by representatives, less "faithful" representation of the will. People).

But I don't know British law ...
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Re: Victory Brexit: consequences for Europe?




by Gaston » 01/07/16, 11:51

Did67 wrote:But factually, on the question of the opinion of the current British parliament, I do not understand you.
I have the impression that you do not read my posts in full (or else I am really not clear : Oops: )
For the parliament current, we are d'accord.

Did67 wrote:I deduced from it, but only deduced, that if parliament were to be consulted or even could be consulted or had to ratify the result of the referendum, it would be extremely simple for Cameron to submit this to the vote of the current parliament, which would automatically cancel the result of the referendum ... AND everything would continue as before.
This is where you get it wrong. Parliament's vote is absolutely necessary, but letting parliament vote against is not a real solution.
Immediately we will cry on all sides to the denial of democracy (and it would not be wrong ...)
Cameron is therefore obliged to take the result into account in one way or another, hence his resignation.

But the UK is now in a deadlock:
  • Referendum result calls for EU exit
  • This exit must to be voted on by the British parliament so that the request for application of Article 50 is transmitted to the EU
  • government cannot force current parliament to vote for exit (and if consulted now, it will vote against)
  • The government does not want to simply ignore the result of the referendum after having organized it itself

This is why (and the article I quoted explains it well), a new election of the parliament would be a completely acceptable way out of this deadlock: we consult the electorate again and if the voters still want to leave the EU, they only have to elect representatives who will vote for this exit.
If after this election the representatives favorable to the exit are in the majority, the exit is triggered, if they are not, the referendum is forgotten.

Did67 wrote:But I don't know British law ...
Exactly: the British government can not to trigger the application of article 50 without a favorable vote of the parliament, that is the whole problem.
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