The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019

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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by SixK » 19/09/21, 14:58

It's been years since we've ever been so close to the crash, but right now it's not happening.
And until that happens, we're not there ... :)

Is the covid crisis pushing the deadline back or bringing it closer?

I am quite surprised by the level of the CAC40 which continued to rise despite the crisis.

Will the united states go into recession?
Since they stole the contract from us for the Swiss gusts and the Australian submarines, they will have a little margin! ;)
And the (crazy) money earned with vaccines ...

Not sure that the lights are red at home?
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by sen-no-sen » 19/09/21, 17:01

The economy has crashed since 2008, but it is kept artificially alive by the massive injection of fictitious liquidity.
We should not formally expect a collapse (of the Hollywood type) in the economy, but rather series of stop and go according to the principle of the two-stroke waltz (strong growth = rising energy prices / = economic slowdown = lower prices = economic revival etc ... etc ...).
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Ahmed » 19/09/21, 18:08

The usual functioning of the economy would have ceased for longer than that, it seems: rather in the years 70-80 (but that's a detail!) And the bursting of the bubble of new technologies in 2000, then that of the subprimes of 2008 correspond well to the phenomenon that you describe. The "inverted" economy lives on a drip and the loans which constitute this palliative previously found their systemic justification in an anticipation of value and therefore an investment in activities mobilizing productive forces and therefore generating value, which is no longer the case. the current case (due to the exclusion of human labor). Conversely, now borrowings are used to simulate the gains of activities that do not or no longer do enough, and keep the entire system in unstable equilibrium.
This radically contradicts the opinion, however widespread, of a financial activity which would come to "vampirize" industries perceived as intrinsically "healthy", as people find it difficult to perceive the change of model.
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by SixK » 19/09/21, 19:09

Ahmed wrote:The usual functioning of the economy would have ceased for longer than that, it seems: rather in the years 70-80 (but that's a detail!) And the bursting of the bubble of new technologies in 2000, then that of the subprimes of 2008 correspond well to the phenomenon that you describe.

Small fix (if I'm not mistaken):
- 2000 was the transition to the year 2000 (a lot of hiring of IT specialists and saturated market after the year 2000)
- 2003 the internet bubble
- 2008 subprime
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Ahmed » 19/09/21, 20:11

Yes, you're right. Thanks for the precision.
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by sen-no-sen » 19/09/21, 20:50

The 2008 crisis differs from the others mentioned above in the sense that it originates in a physical stopper (conventional peak oil). That of 2020 coincides strangely * with the Covid and corresponds to a second stop: the all-oil peak.



* No plot in there, the maximum oil consumption recorded before covid corresponds to a degree, also maximum, of agitation of economic agents. With the Covid the system is quite simply "rebalanced".
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Obamot » 19/09/21, 23:20

humus wrote:
Obamot wrote:Another opinion that goes in the direction of a collapse:

According to some analysts, we would be close to a “banking tsunami ” (by that mean a domino effect during which your savings would probably be confiscated, sucked up ... since the guarantee fund would be 4 billion - whereas we were told 100 € per account, this very small amount would rather suggest that at the final settlement, there could only be € 000 - at most, on each of our accounts ... : Shock:

Nah it's not true ... mash the scoop ... we who thought that "everything was fine”Since Macronlini (and the“ funny ones ”said so : Mrgreen:

Personally I doubt the conclusions of JP Chevallier. He believes that we will prioritize the rules of the game, in the lives of real people.
This is what we have done so far but the covid episode has shown that you can "print money" as much as you want, if you want to.
Playing by the rules would mean nameless social chaos and very quickly no more economic games at all.
But all that concerns money is only a game of writing, easy to tweak here or there so that the economic game continues.
Everyone has an interest in the economic game continuing * because no one knows any other game. : Mrgreen:
Above all, let's not search. : roll:
* except nature and therefore except humans at the end : roll: Suicidal absurdity to continue this "current economic game" as it is.

The real problems will arise when the real resource shortages occur.
Money is created by a simple game of writing, oil, wheat, iron, etc. ... it is already more difficult. : Mrgreen:

Off chance: economie-finance / understanding-the-world-we-live-in-t16917-10.html # p467589
I can only agree with Ahmed's post on the merits, he has an unparalleled way of carving with humanity and precision the unsuspected depths of our economic realities, without even realizing how much they are conditioned by others factors than those usually believed. I like to read Sen-no-Sen's words just as much ... as yours (and other common sense words here) I join you however in the short and medium term, but these are only predictions (which only reinforces the basic analysis in my opinion, since this fictional approach around values ​​derives the reasoning). suddenly, it is paradoxical to predict what will probably happen when all the usual criteria are wrong.
And this to the point where it is what one believes to be reality which is fiction, and what seems fiction would be reality ... But basically, it is more likely that the two visions coexist.

Ahmed wrote:To speak of a "drift of the system" implies that, of course, "excesses" would be reprehensible, but that the functional whole would remain healthy. However, these drifts only constitute epiphenomena, sometimes spectacular, but which are intrinsically the consequences of attempts to remedy the systemic functioning: speculative bubbles which replace the usual process of capital appreciation, themselves due to a fictitious increase in capital. which however fails to restore the old accumulative functions.
The massive expulsion of human labor from the production process increasingly reduces this valorizing possibility, while it implies a destructive forward flight of resources in a compensatory compulsion to produce goods (since each commodity contains relatively less value, more production. massive tries to restore absolute value); the second implication is social: in addition to unemployment, greater pressure is exerted on employees in order to maintain profitability which structurally tends to decline (overall decline, but uneven depending on the sector of activity).
As long as there are "carriers of hope" for a possible valuation, the fiction will continue ... This also explains the current craze for industries and "green" energies which seem to constitute the only current opportunity (in addition to provide an exit door, probably imaginary, to ineluctable physical constraints) to the pursuit of a system at the end of its phase.
So well seen. A delight.
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Obamot » 05/02/22, 19:08

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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Ahmed » 05/02/22, 20:03

That the economic system is globally on a downward slope in no way means that its "officials" are affected uniformly and some are indeed advantaged, temporarily, within this systemic crisis, not because they would necessarily take advantage of this situation, but, on the one hand because all the sectors are not affected in the same way and on the other hand because of the concentration of the companies which makes that it is the dominant ones which draw their pin from the game. elsewhere the same evolution in the USA...
This unbalanced social bipolarization is dangerous and we see its effects on the current rise of transversal and economic populism (valuist), as well as that of conspiracy theories.
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Re: The biggest financial crash in history will happen in 2019




by Obamot » 05/02/22, 20:14

What can this “kick kick” of 2016 explain? :?:
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