Debate on debt and false pretenses

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Debate on debt and false pretenses




by freddau » 08/08/11, 09:51

Debate on debt and pretense

Tuesday July 19 2011

Wall Street Letter | THE WORLD

Between ideology and political issues, the debate on raising the debt "ceiling" in the United States gives the impression of a shadow theater. Almost nothing of the words and actions of the protagonists that is not imbued with hidden interests, nothing or almost that is not based on the conviction that oblivion or ignorance are stronger than anything. Two striking examples illustrate this mixture of instrumentalization and voluntary amnesia which leaves aside the fundamental questions and begins to tire of an opinion which struggles to follow a debate where the sincerity of the protagonists is not the major characteristic.

Let's start with the Republicans. Formally, they claim to make the reduction of the debt - more exactly of its rate in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP) - a matter of "principles". But it is largely a posture. Their real battle horse - imposed for the moment by their radical fringe of the Tea Party and certain major lobbies which finance their elected officials - is the massive reduction in the state of life in order to prevent it from acting, which is not the same.

We had already mentioned the way in which Republican elected officials block nominations and funding from federal agencies to promote deregulation (“Nobel Prize? Incompetent!” Le Monde, June 22). Rarely has this attitude been made as visible as in the recent decision of the House Committee on Appropriations Committee to refuse to vote on the budget of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), the policeman of the markets.

From the crisis, this organization was released very discredited. The SEC had not investigated six times on the scammer Bernard Madoff without success? Let the bubble of real estate debt swell recklessly until it implodes? For many, her fate was sealed: she would be at best profoundly reformed, at worst doomed. The Obama administration hesitated and ended up ... giving it more prerogatives.

The Dodd-Frank law of financial regulation allocated more investigators and specialists better trained to detect white collar fraudsters and speculators at risk. The Republican majority in the House, however, canceled its allocation of 222,5 million dollars (158 million euros) additional provided for in its 2012 budget, to keep it unchanged (ie, in constant dollars: - 2,5%). Reason given: faced with "a cumulative federal deficit exceeding $ 14 trillion in debt", spending less becomes an imperative for everyone.

But this is a trick. If the SEC is a public body, its funding is not: it comes entirely from the compulsory contributions of 35 players in the American markets. They are the ones who will contribute less, and the agency which will be less able to pursue their bad apples. The public deficit will not have been reduced by a single cent. Worse, noted Robert Khuzami, number two in the SEC, his organization is a net contributor to the state budget, due to the fines it imposes on financiers who disrespect its rules: the more it can sue, the more it brings money back to taxpayers. In short, on the pretext of "reducing public spending", the deficit is widened a little more ...

On the Democrats' side, the debate highlights a truly astonishing de facto alliance: that of the White House and the rating agencies. Staggering, when we remember what these same Democrats could have said, three years ago, when public opinion expressed an acute rejection of the actors of Wall Street and that the authority of these agencies, of which they are the clients and financial, seemed irreparably deteriorated. These Standard & Poor's, Fitch and other Moody's were accused of having let AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and company take on astronomical debt at risk without ever downgrading their rating, of having acted in the same way with the companies of faithless credit and other institutions that structured their "rotten" titles. It was a time when Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner assured that, under his administration, "the dependence of investors and regulators on rating agencies will be reduced."

Since then, however, these agencies have only been very poorly regulated. And they are making rain and shine in the global debt market today. The role of these champions of reducing deficits with clear cuts has swelled to the point of dictating their law to States paralyzed by the threat of a possible degradation of their debt rating. And, as they threaten Washington to do so, how does the same Mr. Geithner react? Rather than remember his ferocious remarks about them in the past, he hastens to try to profit politically from their threats to get the Republicans to agree to an agreement on the terms of the reduction of the debt ratio. American less in accordance with the wishes of his radical faction of the Tea Party. Obama-Standard & Poor's same fight: who would have believed?

Meanwhile, the real problems of American debt, those of an aging society that produces more than 10% of what it consumes and expends immensely more than any other in military and health costs (for a result, in this last area, which is much lower than comparable countries), remain far from public debate.

Sylvain Cypel


Source
http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... _3234.html
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Repayment of US debt




by Obamot » 08/08/11, 11:21

The US debt has no measure with the debt of Greece and other European firecrackers, whose fate is being sealed! Except if you get caught by the "big show ricain"!

I see a monumental difference between these two sons. One has a macro-European approach by attempting a pragmatic reasoning while the other sweeps the logic by showing mechanisms and manipulations that are closer to Las Vegas than a vision of finance that should rather be ideally that of the "model communal "!

Between the two sons we are in a report from 1 to 1000 !!!

Therefore, it is not at the European level that we must see a possible domino effect, unless we want to fall into the trap. But where is THE REAL PROBLEM imho. The PIGGS next door is cat pee, I say that from the beginning in the other thread, but no one is listening. This thread has its place, amha ...

The connection made in this article between Madoff and what the treasure does is quite luminous.

In contrast, the world economy is no longer condemned to autism, thanks to .... China's country 'Communist'! The Chinese would hold 22% of the US debt (almost a quarter of the external debt ...)
http://blog.lefigaro.fr/economie/2011/0 ... caine.html

By raising the level of its 2'000 billion dollar debt, US taxpayers, will be liable to the State of 100'000 US $ on average per active person. And this does not take into account private credits ... (houses, cars, appliances, TV ... etc)

2010 / 2011 figures from Wikipedia wrote: 300 mios of inhabitants
16,5 trillion dollars of debt (or 16'500 billion [edit])
~ 150 mios of active / salaried persons.

Either (~) 110'000 dollars to pay back per worker ....


This was the big show ... the circle (the fall of the markets ... it is epistolary - although inevitable - since the world ipso facto need the American economy to turn ...).

And yes, we are in the midst of hypocrisy and “pretense”, and we are therefore facing an “almost stock market crash” => even if the stock markets are momentarily “in the green”, thanks to the massive intervention of the leaders of the planet, to "reassure the markets" => all this is very virtual when there is denial.

How could they get away from it?
By repaying their debt with at best a real interest rate of around 3% (and in monetization equal to or less than the increase in GDP to 2% per year ... of course ... no but ... ) or 40 billion the first year => 70 billion the last. Debt will remain almost constant in value, but will decrease as a percentage of GDP, to drop to 50% of GDP in ... 30 years.

Out of this scenario is the inflationary spiral (I do not think they will go to more rigor after the slap of 2008) and then America would now - whole - funded by a huge Ponzi scheme (for those who followed the Madoff affair ... it's the same, but at the governmental level and worldwide repercussions ...). And to avoid a global collapse, the world must change reserve currency (exit the US billboard, no longer have WTC to fall ... they will finally tighten their belts ...).

In short, we missed the worst for now, by a sleight of hand: well go the dollars .... Who can hardly go up much now, given its rating of "trust" amha.

The real question is what is the future international reserve currency going to be?

All the dangers of a reorientation of the global economy are to be expected in the next five years. It will not be too bad if the Democrats are renewed their confidence - the big fortunes will then have to get their hands on the wallet - but for the current President to be re-elected, the Americans should not fall into the awful panel of psychosis, stretched by the Republicans ...
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The Truth About US Debt (Public & Private)




by Obamot » 08/08/11, 16:48

The truth about US debt

The television news does not dare to tell us about the accumulation of debt. Supposedly, the markets would react to Standard & Poor's decision, but it is not. The "market reaction" is purely virtual. The world economy is in great danger.

Total public debt, including state guaranteed debt:

Image

Total private debt:

Image

Cumulative private & public debt: US $ 61,809 trillion

More than 400% of GDP => the United States is de facto no longer solvent!

http://criseusa.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/01 ... -fin-2010/

[Edit: math sign.]
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by Did67 » 08/08/11, 17:11

Ah, still so poor economists on econology (even if the conclusion can defend itself, by the way, and otherwise):

- a debt (what we owe) is compared to an asset (what we own: a stock) and not to an income (or a flow) or a GDP

- Insolvency can be a cash flow problem: not enough cash flow (flow) compared to monthly payments (a flow, different from the capital of the ...)

- Normally, banks do not ask when the total outstanding (capital) of the will reach a significant percentage of the capital owned

For a state, the GDP is not the capital, it is the production which is added to the cumulative capital previously.

Example: a farmer. It has 100 ha worth 1 million euros, herd worth 500 000 euros and machines worth 500 000. It has 2 millions of capital. He is indebted to the level of 500 000 euros (capital of).

With this capital, it produces 100 000 euros of products each year (its GDP). He has to repay 50 000 euros annuities.

We can see that its "GDP" has nothing to do with its debt.

He will find another bank that will lend him because he owns 1,5 million to him (his total capital minus the capital from his banks). So in case of bankruptcy, the bank will be able to sell the farm for at least 1,5 million, refund 500 000 euros already from. So he could still get 500 000 euros.

Bine sr the bank will also verify that its "product" will cover the annuities, once the current charges have been paid ...

Therefore, cumulating the public and private debt of a country and comparing it to its GDP is certainly an "indicator". What interests economists is the debt burden compared to GDP. With regard to states, it is the state's debt compared to the resources that the state can levy (hence the consensus around taxation). What hurts in the United States is above all the lack of consensus!

That being said, it is true that the growing debt is worrying.
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by Obamot » 08/08/11, 17:17

Yes okay do not confuse ... : Mrgreen: And you do well to remind us! : Cheesy: : Cheesy: : Cheesy:

However with the simple common sense peasant: you have to have an income to repay the debts as you do in your example, but I do not see how every "active" American could repay the average US $ 412'060 that he has to (public debt + accumulated private debt) ... I do not mind that there is a capital, assets, coughing, coughing ... But a debt must pay well ... So accrod it is spread over the duration ... That's what I'm trying to determine. (With simple words, I am not only peasant but probably also a little butcher ;-) : Shock: : Shock: : Shock:

An explanation?

Because here I have trouble understanding your sentence:

- Normally, banks do not ask when the total outstanding (capital) of the will reach a significant percentage of the capital owned


Did67 wrote:What interests economists is the debt burden compared to GDP. With regard to the states, it is the debt of the state compared to the resources that can take the state (thus the consensus around the taxation).


... yes, but then how much "in real life" ...
... do you have an understandable range for the Boeotian peouze? : Mrgreen: : Cheesy:
... if it is not appropriate to add public debt + private debt, how to do the correct calculation? Because you have to define a "reimbursement rate" ... Just to determine if they are solvent ...
Because there, it fucks the ch'tons : Shock: : Cheesy: :P :?: : Arrowd: :D : Cheesy:
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by Did67 » 08/08/11, 18:32

Obamot wrote:
However with the simple common sense peasant: you have to have an income to repay the debts as you do in your example, but I do not see how every "active" American could repay the average US $ 412'060 that he has to (public debt + accumulated private debt) ... I do not mind that there is a capital, assets, coughing, coughing ... But a debt must pay well ... So accrod it is spread over the duration... :


As you rightly say, this is not a year that will be refunded ... We are on no time 30 or 50 years.

Like when you buy your house on credit. You do not have a quarter of its value. And your annual net income (fixed charges deducted) is not the 20th of its value.

So you get indebted on 30 years. You repay each year a little bit ... And normally you get there.

Public debt: it is a charge of the state, which it will have to repay from its revenues. So, yes, we will have to expect states which will be subscribed to "minimum public service" + reimbursement. So immobilized states. No more means of stimulating spolitics (in favor of the environment, etc ...). So times that are going to be tough - the next 30 or 50 years!

Private debt: for the moment, apart from the "subprimes", the Americans are repaying. Or we sell their goods having served as collateral. But it is certain that they will not be able to continue like this ....

In short, it's quite simple: on the one hand, flows (income, monthly payment); on the other hand, capital = "crystallized" income having the value of "stocks".

Some typing errors not corrected: "normally, banks no longer lend when the total outstanding amount that the person owes will reach a significant percentage of the capital owned": if you have 1 (value of what you have, loan capital deducted), the banks will lend you 000 without problem, even if your income is only 500 ...

I have no more forks than Standard and Poors or Moodies ... Well, a lot less. I was correcting "principles" ... And as said, I share the point of view that the situation is certainly serious.
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by Christophe » 08/08/11, 19:57

I don't agree with this reasoning in "gross debt" numbers (which I haven't checked, let's say they're good).

Indeed; most of the households that are recent owners assuming a debt 30% and 20 years, are indebted to about 20 * 100% * 0.3 = 600% of their annual income!

We are therefore well beyond the 70, 80 or even 180% on the GDP (the GDP is comparable to the income of a country ...), the difference is that the 1ere (the private) repay the capital ... not the states that pay only the interest and that's where the whole scam is because never a debt where the capital is not paid will not be refunded !! We never tolerate this for a private loan !!

The problem with public debts, something inconceivable in private debt, is that we only refund interest, we left it spun in the sole interest of enriching creditors ... banking organizations for the most part.

Explained better than that in the 2 videos of this topic: https://www.econologie.com/forums/crise-de-l ... 11038.html
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by Obamot » 08/08/11, 20:10

Did67 wrote:
Obamot wrote:
However with the simple common sense peasant: you have to have an income to repay the debts as you do in your example, but I do not see how every "active" American could repay the average US $ 412'060 that he has to (public debt + accumulated private debt) ... I do not mind that there is a capital, assets, coughing, coughing ... But a debt must pay well ... So accrod it is spread over the duration... :


As you rightly say, this is not a year that will be refunded ... We are on no time 30 or 50 years.

Like when you buy your house on credit. You do not have a quarter of its value. And your annual net income (fixed charges deducted) is not the 20th of its value.

So you get indebted on 30 years. You repay each year a little bit ... And normally you get there.

Public debt: it is a charge of the state, which it will have to repay from its revenues. So, yes, we will have to expect states which will be subscribed to "minimum public service" + reimbursement. So immobilized states. No more means of stimulating spolitics (in favor of the environment, etc ...). So times that are going to be tough - the next 30 or 50 years!

Private debt: for the moment, apart from the "subprimes", the Americans are repaying. Or we sell their goods having served as collateral. But it is certain that they will not be able to continue like this ....

In short, it's quite simple: on the one hand, flows (income, monthly payment); on the other hand, capital = "crystallized" income having the value of "stocks".

Some typing errors not corrected: "normally, banks no longer lend when the total outstanding amount that the person owes will reach a significant percentage of the capital owned": if you have 1 (value of what you have, loan capital deducted), the banks will lend you 000 without problem, even if your income is only 500 ...

I have no more forks than Standard and Poors or Moodies ... Well, a lot less. I was correcting "principles" ... And as said, I share the point of view that the situation is certainly serious.


For my part my box had requested a loan worth 27% of the capital available, but it was not granted .... By cons, they would have been willing to offer more ... but later! Go understand ... It's been too long since banks no longer play their role. They do not have to do business speculating on the amha stock market.

In short, if we take your example of 50%, if we take only the public debt (GSE included) GDP should then be 42,928 trillions ... We are far from the account (even without ... they should have a GDP of 33 trillions before agreeing to raise the debt level of 2'000 billion ......)

Well, I'll let you go to the post office to make my payments ... : Mrgreen: and after milking the cows.

[Edit: comma error]
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Re: The Truth About US Debt (Public & Private




by Christophe » 08/08/11, 20:16

Obamot wrote:Cumulative private & public debt: US $ 61 trillion


Reassure me, you have to read 61 809 billion US $! (comma high = point or low comma)

ps: -4.68% for the cacarentre and in the red since 10 days and we still do not talk about crash? Mwarf ...

And + 3% for gold and silver: http://www.boursorama.com/indices/matie ... eres.phtml who was right? 8)
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by Obamot » 08/08/11, 20:25

Bein no, otherwise the total debt would be lower than the sovereign debt, amha.

61,809 trillion if you prefer! (Private debt US + cumulative public)

Jacques Attali had even advanced the figure 65 trillion ch. that I had already given.

No, I do not think there is any mistake, you can see that in the tables against which they would have been wrong (probably a translation error French / English).

Unless I'm gorging myself, you know how to get out of the stable ... I can not count anymore : Mrgreen:
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