Crash course: complete video course in econology

Current Economy and Sustainable Development-compatible? GDP growth (at all costs), economic development, inflation ... How concillier the current economy with the environment and sustainable development.
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Crash course: complete video course in econology




by stipe » 25/01/11, 10:30

Hello everyone !

following Christophe's proposal on another subject ( https://www.econologie.com/forums/eco-tartuf ... 10395.html ), I create a new one
(quote from Ahmed says the sage):
Although not entirely sharing his views in some developments, the relevance and originality of the subject is a permanent treat.


It is necessary, all ceasing business, to read this course which amazed and impassioned me on the problems and the links between the environment economy and energy:
http://jcbonsai.free.fr/cc/
in English OV:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

The title is perhaps a bit exaggerated but it remains for me a crucial link even if some points are perhaps questionable but after all forum is made for that!

Good reading and above all do not hesitate to react, and if you like to pass on!
Last edited by stipe the 25 / 01 / 11, 11: 00, 1 edited once.
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by Christophe » 25/01/11, 10:51

Super it will be more visible as well. In addition I put the message in Post It and I slightly modified the title (I hope it will suit you)

To complete and / or develop:

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by stipe » 25/01/11, 10:55

Very good sir :D merci!
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by dedeleco » 25/01/11, 13:15

Ecology, creativity, economy, whatever the forms taken, from communism to extreme capitalism, through thoughtful or realistic ecology are over time a chaotic system as unpredictable as the climate, sea level or earthquakes or any highly coupled complex system !!
So even if we believe we understand, by acting logically, in an optimal, controlled manner, etc., we do not avoid crashes and catastrophes. In any real complex and therefore chaotic system
read:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Five_ ... Change.svg

http://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planett ... ltaO18.jpg
http://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planett ... -09-27.xml

finally effective specialists in chaos to listen to:
With the gifted scientists who go from physics to finance by translating their studies on chaos to finance,
and therefore future crises, financial, monetary crashes, famines, lack of metals, are unpredictable apart from the warning signs just before, such as the cracking of a reservoir that will crack or of a future earthquake !!

Example:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette

Another talented:
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Philippe_Bouchaud

http://www.videosurf.com/video/jean-phi ... ?vlt=ffext

http://www.videosurf.com/video/financia ... ?vlt=ffext

http://videolectures.net/ccss09_stanley_efasp/

http://videolectures.net/ccss09_lux_eaftpc/
http://videolectures.net/cvss08_satinover_igcog/
and all the other videos !!

to predict the stock market crashes and financial crises, it is the same as predicting the rupture of a tank under too high pressure as those of the rocket Ariane.

Same with Shadoks boilers !!

Give him your Okof boiler and he will predict when your boiler will have a fit or a crash !!

Even our brain is chaotic and that is why we understand absolutely nothing about the meaning of signals between neurons, even between two unfortunate isolated neurons !!

So philosophizing in a vacuum by forgetting this chaotic reality is almost useless !!
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by Obamot » 25/01/11, 13:21

If I may, I disagree with this assertion from the first chapter:

Crash Course, Chapter 1: Three Beliefs wrote:the next twenty years will be completely different from the last twenty years


By the fact that history shows that statistics change very little.

On the growth side, this is even more true, if it is around 10% in the most popular countries (China, Asia) it fluctuates between 0 and 3% on average. Degrowth we are not there ... It is already popping up all over the planet (hunger riots, repeated stock market crashes, suicide bombers, surges of fanaticisms, etc.) how do you still advocate degrowth with such social inequalities?

For this to work it would need a planetary revolution:
- change the theoretical models;
- review the rules of law and finally track down predators, who for the time being enjoy protection at the highest level and this in the name of the alleged presumption of innocence, while the victims themselves are often treated as "guilty »Until they have proven their" good faith "(it's a shame), and again, if they manage to do so as long as they have remained alive, it is not so far that their requests will be heard;
- I do not even dare to approach the different ways in which this “predation” materializes at the “economic” level, but here are some avenues: financial predation by the deception of an entire system based on monetary creation from something that 'we should ban: debts => until the systematic looting of raw materials, often in the south ... The first targets are us, in the rich countries, who are in the process of underdevelopment concerning the quality food products completely intoxicated with chemicals (due to the rule of seeking the lowest possible production cost ...) and completely devitalized (look at the surface ratio between fresh products VS preserved products, in supermarkets, it's alucinating ...)

So it is not the North that helps the South ... but the opposite! (Raw materials bought at low prices ...) And those who resist are often put at a manu militari pace.

So the decrease I want, it is desirable but put into practice ... I do not believe it.

For this to work, there would have to be a planetary revolution of consciousness. I don't believe that either, except for a cataclysm which would push man to react, because he could no longer do otherwise. Because both political and religious disparities are such that all nations are reduced to merging into consensus ...

I am not pessimistic, it seems to me rather that it is the "nature" of man that is thus made.

I think that an econological hope is in sight with the "green-tech" ... although I remain a fervent of the defense of the pure and hard ecological cause (I live where I work so as not to have to worry move too much etc ...) we have no choice and must adapt to the socio-political environment of the corner where we live, and individually, nobody can prevent us from doing more than the "Admissible standards" ... Good luck!
Last edited by Obamot the 25 / 01 / 11, 13: 22, 1 edited once.
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by stipe » 25/01/11, 13:22

Dédéleco: did you read the link of the first post?

There is no question of predicting what date will happen which crash ...
Or even to explain how to avoid it.

To use your metaphor on the tank under too high pressure, he would rather explain how he considers that the tank is not designed to apply such pressure to him and that therefore one day or another he will crack ...

Frankly I do not see how this philosopher link in the void :?:
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by stipe » 25/01/11, 13:30

Obamot wrote:If I may, I disagree with this assertion from the first chapter:

Crash Course, Chapter 1: Three Beliefs wrote:the next twenty years will be completely different from the last twenty years


By the fact that history shows that statistics change very little.


So the decrease I want, it is desirable but put into practice ... I do not believe it.



This course does not say that by choice the years to come will be different from the years past. What is said roughly (it's better to read it live, huh, I'm making shortcuts, me) is that the scarcity of oil, the vagaries of the weather linked to global warming, the aging of rich countries , the scarcity of raw materials, the pressing need for growth, the global financial system and a number of other interrelated problems mean that we are entering a pivotal time that will be a major upheaval in our way of life, which 'we like it or not.

Then we will see if in 10-15 years he was right or wrong : Lol:
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by Obamot » 25/01/11, 13:35

... The goal being above all to act upstream => to do prevention => we can above all act on an individual level, the only way where we have really taken amha:
https://www.econologie.com/forums/gestion-ec ... 69-10.html

dedeleco wrote:Ecology, creativity, economy, whatever the forms taken, from communism to extreme capitalism, through thoughtful or realistic ecology are over time a chaotic system as unpredictable as the climate, sea level or earthquakes or any highly coupled complex system !!
So even if we believe we understand, by acting logically, in an optimal, controlled manner, etc., we do not avoid crashes and catastrophes. In any real complex and therefore chaotic system
read:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Five_ ... Change.svg

http://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planett ... ltaO18.jpg
http://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planett ... -09-27.xml

finally effective specialists in chaos to listen to:
With the gifted scientists who go from physics to finance by translating their studies on chaos to finance,
and therefore future crises, financial crash, monetary, famines, lack of metals, are unpredictable apart from the warning signs just before, like the cracking of a tank that will crack or of a future earthquake !!

Example:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Sornette

Another talented:
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Philippe_Bouchaud

http://www.videosurf.com/video/jean-phi ... ?vlt=ffext

http://www.videosurf.com/video/financia ... ?vlt=ffext

http://videolectures.net/ccss09_stanley_efasp/

http://videolectures.net/ccss09_lux_eaftpc/
http://videolectures.net/cvss08_satinover_igcog/
and all the other videos !!

to predict the stock market crashes and financial crises, it's the same as predicting the rupture of a tank under too high pressure like those of the Ariane rocket.

Same with Shadoks boilers !!

Give him your Okof boiler and he will predict when your boiler will have a fit or a crash !!

Even our brain is chaotic and that is why we understand absolutely nothing about the meaning of signals between neurons, even between two unfortunate isolated neurons !!

So philosophizing in a vacuum by forgetting this chaotic reality is almost useless !!
Exactly Dedelco.

You can add "the omen of the Hedinburg" which is the perfect illustration of this transcription between "physical" warning signs and stock market crash:

http://www.trading-school.eu/glossaire- ... g-Omen-274

In reality, we are already worried the index goes from + 2,2% to -2,2% during a period of 30 days (according to the “TTC” broadcast by TSR), a difference of 4,4%. within 30 days!

(ie to be added to Chapter 16 of "Crash Course". "Crash" being semantically misused since we speak of a "crash" for a car or an airplane for example, but a crash for the stock market or the economy ...)
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by dedeleco » 25/01/11, 14:01

There is no question of predicting what date will happen which crash ...
Or even to explain how to avoid it


More if this course "crash course" ' to read its conclusion is addressed to the worried Americans with the last crash and the fear that it is much worse, to try to have an influence to predict it, not to be fooled even more, and to avoid it !!
And you do not understand that it is useless, strictly nothing, to seek to understand, to seek an ideology, a belief which reassures, which can lead so generalized too much and taken to the extreme, to much worse catastrophes as in the past century, after the crash, wars, totalitarianism, genocides.

We continue to believe in the illusion that there is a determinism which allows us to understand when it is false, even the movement of planets around the sun with immutable simple laws is chaotic beyond a few million years !!

You have not assimilated this fundamental result !!

The bankers with physicists on the contrary take advantage of it by using the measured correlation times to speculate with the minimum of risks except during a rare crash (very low risk calculated, essential for a maximum profit) and then we save them so as not to flow with them !!!!

And this course also seeks to understand the optimum so as not to get caught up in this crash of banks and the economy!

An illusion !!


http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcour ... hould-i-do

Okay, so you've seen the entire Crash Course, showing how the Economy, Energy, and the Environment are interlinked. Specifically, you've seen that there is a substantial mismatch between an economic model that must grow and a physical world of peaking oil and depleting resources. We cannot possibly solve any one of these main issues in isolation, because doing so will simply create new problems in one of the other “E” s. Truly non-status-quo solutions are called for.

Which means there is a very real chance that our collective path will not be a linear extrapolation of the present. Our individual challenge is to accept the possibility that the future may be quite a departure from the present.

I believe that the future is not some purely random roll of the dice, and that we can minimize future disruptions in our lives by taking actions today.

In one way I am glad to have waited to produce this final chapter, because we have had the great financial panic of the Fall of 2008, and we can more precisely map where this is all headed.

The multi-trillion-dollar bailout packages offered to banks by various governments across the globe are nearly 100% dedicated towards preserving the status quo.

But at the same time, none of these challenges or trends are going to be helped in the slightest by bailing out the banking system, and some will be made worse. The fact that our national leaders have chosen to go several trillion dollars further into debt in a desperate bid to preserve "what was" simply indicates that it is now even more probable that the burden of meeting these challenges has shifted a bit further towards private citizens and small communities.

Part of the complication with developing a “what should we do” chapter is that I have no idea where your beliefs lie. Everybody exists somewhere along this spectrum of belief, ranging from expecting a rather ordinary, if not slight, interruption in economic growth, all the way on up to a big breakdown. Everybody exists along here somewhere.

And depending on where you happen to sit, both the number of things you could do, and their urgency, increase dramatically.

Given this, where do we start? How do we get started, when there are so many variables and things that need doing?

This is why we need a framework for action.

There are four sequential steps to this framework. First, you have to decide that you are going to take action. Without this commitment, there's not much point in continuing. Second, you need to take stock of where you are, and here I propose a self-assessment that will unearth your strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats. Third, you've got to sort among the infinite list of things you could do, and then fourth, you've got to prioritize this list, because you can't do everything. Together, these create the framework for action.

So let's begin with Step 1 - the case for action.

First, let's add some detail to the spectrum I laid out before. Here we might assess the potential for disruption as beginning with “status quo,” meaning that all the key risks dissipate relatively rapidly. Next on the spectrum would be a prolonged recession and all that that entails. Next we might place a collapse of the financial system on here, and finally we might consider a collapse of government services at all levels

I am pretty certain that our future lies somewhere along this spectrum; the problem is, I don't know where. The key here is that I cannot entirely rule out any particular outcome. I can't place a probability of zero next to any of these, so I need to weigh them all.

So let's play a little thought game with one of them and see how it might lead to making a case for action. Let's use # 3 - Financial System Collapse.

Without worrying about how likely or probable a financial crisis might be, let's simply say it is either true or it is false. That is, it either happens or it doesn't. Hopefully we can all agree that “true or false” pretty much covers the total range of possible outcomes.

And down on this axis, we'll say that you either prepared for this crisis in advance or you did not. Again, it is either true or false that you chose to take steps to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis.

So what happens if it's both true that the crisis happened and that you did prepare as best you could? Congratulations - give yourself a smiley face; you did the best you could.

And what about the case where the crisis did not happen and you did not prepare? Again, congratulations - you did the best you could. It turns out that these are essentially equivalent outcomes, and we can therefore remove them from our decision framework. In each case, we got the best outcome we could, so there's not much to be gained from weighing and comparing them.

But what about this case, where the crisis did not happen but you did prepare? How bad could that be? What's the worst that you could put in this box? Well, you probably wasted some money (maybe the opportunity to participate in capital gains in the stock market) and some wasted time, but perhaps worst of all, you ended up feeling foolish. That's awful.

Now let's compare this box to this other box, where the financial crisis happened but you did not prepare. What can we put in this box? Here it's possible that you suffered a massive loss of wealth, had to make sudden, massive adjustments under the pressure of little time and scarce resources, and live with a sense of recrimination for having been “right” in your concerns but unprepared nonetheless. You can probably put a bunch more things in each of these boxes, and you should. But for our purposes, we're done.

Now all we have to do is compare these two boxes. That's it. In the scheme of things, which is worse? Where would you rather be? We are all built differently, but I am the sort that could never forgive myself for being right but unprepared. I can more easily forgive myself for being wrong and prepared. But that's just me. Only you know which of these two boxes carries more weight for you. But if you picked the upper right box, then I need to ask, “What's preventing you from taking action?”

Here's a slight refinement of this thinking that allows for more subtlety than “true or false.” Assume that we revisit our spectrum for a financial crisis that spans from “it's not too bad” all the way to “everything breaks down and stops working for awhile. ”Let's assume that everyone has a different assessment of how likely any particular outcome is.

We might find that one person assesses the chance as very low that anything too bad will happen, while another person holds a nearly opposite view. In one important respect, they hold the same view; they both hold the possibility of a bad outcome as being greater than zero. When an outcome has a potentially huge impact, a prudent adult may decide to react to that risk, even though it is not very likely.

As long as some risk exists in your mind, and as long as the potential costs of not taking action are outweighed by the costs of taking action, then it makes sense to take action. That's the case for action.

Okay, assuming you've decided that taking action makes sense, the hard part is where? We've been talking about some very big changes in the Crash Course, so where does one begin in this enormous universe of potential actions?

Here's where I would recommend that you spend an hour and perform a self-assessment. There is an outline for this that you can download in the ACT section of ChrisMartenson.com.

It consists of three main areas. Your financial self-assessment should include your current & future needs, your current & future income, taking stock of all forms of wealth, and any issues concerning accessing your wealth that apply.

There are similar kinds of areas to cover that I am calling foundational that are equally as important, if not more, than the financial areas. Lastly, there are all of your physical needs to consider. A typical result of conducting a self-assessment is discovering that our lives are very much dependent on a lot of things we take for granted.

Once you've got your self-assessment complete, you have a pretty good idea of ​​where you are strong and where you are not. The self-assessment, then, is your starting point - it represents your position in relation to the outside world.

Now we need to go to the outside world and rank all of the possible risks and challenges that exist, that we will then match against our self-assessment.

The three dimensions that we will use to begin bucketing the various events and risks are time (that is, how near or urgent is the risk or event), impact (is this a big deal or a little deal?), And likelihood (which is the same as the probability of the event).

To get a handle on time, consider grouping events on a timeline. In the first Horizon, which I see as running from zero to two years out, I place the housing bust, a credit bubble burst, and the possibility of a systemic banking failure. A bit further out, I foresee petroleum demand and supply crossing, issues with boomer retirement, and the possible emergence of very high inflation. Even further out, I see really big, hairy challenges like national insolvency, perhaps the end of fiat money, and the emergence of a new economic model.

Since I can't respond to all of these at once, I mainly focus on those that are within the immediate Horizon. Again, you could place very different things in each of these Horizons, and those would be the ones you would use. These happen to be mine. For illustrative purposes, we'll run through an example based on the possibility of a systemic banking failure.

Next, I segment things by Impact and Likelihood. If you understand insurance, you already understand this next process. Think of fire insurance on a house. We don't carry it because such an event is especially likely (it is not), but because the impact is so catastrophic. That is, a prudent person will combine impact and likelihood to come to the decision that purchasing fire insurance makes sense.

So here's a way to do that for the other areas in your life. Suppose we construct a simple 2x2 chart, and on this axis we break the likelihood of the event into “High” and “Low” buckets, while on the other axis we split the impact into “High” and “Low” buckets.

So something that is both low impact and low likelihood is something that we should not ever spend any of our precious time or resources on. Things that fall here are just not worth worrying about.

Anything that is high impact and high likelihood is a slam-dunk. We always wait for these, and we do them first.

Things that are of high impact but low likelihood require more thought, but generally we would usually attend to most of the things in this box next. After that, we'd sometimes attend to things that are low impact but high likelihood, especially if they happen to have easy or quick remedies.

So this becomes the area where events fall that I expect to. How you happen to fill this in will depend on your age, financial means, family situation, and a host of other factors

Because I consider there to be a 50% chance of a systemic financial collapse over the next 2 years, I place this as a high impact / high probability event, meaning that this is a risk that deserved and got a lot of my attention.

So let's continue with the example. With this two-by-two grid in our minds, we might flesh out the risks associated with financial system collapse using a table that looks like this.

First, we might assess the likelihood of widespread bank closures to be “high,” the impact to be “high,” and therefore the rank of this event as “high.”

Then we might come to the same conclusions about our own personal banks. But we might assess the overall rank of a disruption in the food distribution network as “medium,” and dollar destruction as “medium” because it has both a high and a low which average out to medium. We might assess cuts to government spending as “low.” These are a few examples. Other things can and should be added to the list.

The point here is to assess the likelihood and impact of each event that we think applies to the scenario we are studying. When you've completed this, we'll have a ranked list of events.

My recommendation is that when you do these exercises, that you do them with like-minded friends… they will think of things you will miss, it's more fun, and will go faster.

Now you've got to generate a list. You do this by filtering those events that are imminent, likely, and of high impact, through your self-assessment. I guarantee when you do this, you will end up with an entirely too long list of things that you could possibly do.

It's time to prioritize.

First, the list can quickly be broken into things that you can or will do, and things that you can't or won't do. One person might feel completely empowered to move their wealth around; another might have their wealth locked in an irrevocable trust.

Of the things that you can or will do, we will break those into three tiers of action, such that Tier 1 is always started and completed before beginning Tier 2, which will always precede Tier 3. This makes it much easier to get started, because the lists are much more manageable.

Of the things that you can't or won't do, your options include finding someone else who can do them (and this is where community comes in), or letting them go and not worrying about them anymore.

Back to our example, let's suppose that after filtering your ranked events through your self-assessment you came up with a nice long list of actions that you'd like to undertake. Almost certainly, there are too many to do all at once, and it is time to use the three-tier system to identify and tackle the easiest, lowest cost, highest bang-for-the-buck stuff first.

So what is Tier 1? It consists of the easiest, quickest, and cheapest items that require minimal outside assistance and no substantive changes to lifestyle. In this example, then, we might decide that taking a bit of hard cash out of the bank would provide a reasonable buffer against the risk of being without purchasing power, should the banks and ATMs go “on holiday” for a while. This is easy and very doable. Our major risk would be feeling a bit foolish later, after nothing happens and we go to redeposit that money in a bank. We might also decide to spread our bets around, just in case the bank holiday was not universal and only applied to some banks. Finally, we might decide to hedge against the vast loss of purchasing power that the people of Argentina experienced while their banks were shuttered. Gold represents one of the few ways to hold a money-like asset entirely outside of the banking system. And we'd do all of these things before even thinking about starting the Tier 2 list.

And so we proceed to Tier 2, which consists of those Items that plug the biggest gaps in your self-assessment and require a significant investment of time, money, and energy.

For instance, implementing a saving program so that you can afford needed items, or thinking about ways to create a food buffer for your community, or getting involved with your neighbors and local scene to a greater extent.

After these items have been gone through, it is time to consider the Tier 3 items - the hard stuff. These are the biggest changes or life decisions on your list, such as changing where you live, or acquiring new skills, or maybe changing your job. The point is that you should resist the urge to spend any time or energy mulling these over until you've made serious progress on the Tier 1 and Tier 2 actions.

If all of this seems like too much work, and you were hoping Chapter 20 would be a more directive and simplified “here's what you do” shopping list, I can only say that there are no easy answers for the magnitude of the challenges we face . This chapter could easily be an entire course itself, and future videos on my site will explore these questions in greater detail.

What I have been consistently trying to prepare people for, the whole way along, is that the next twenty years are going to be unlike the last twenty years.

Specifically, I think we each need to be prepared for a financial catastrophe - not because we are 100% sure it will happen, but because we can't be 100% sure it won't happen. Prudent adults identify and manage risks.

And I think we each need to be prepared for the possibility, the possibility, that a disruption in our basic support systems could happen. The things that surface in this line of thinking are considered very “out there” in today's society, but barely 100 years ago our complete dependence on the just-in-time delivery of the basics of life would have been considered mad.

Lastly, I think the future is going to be about moving from an “I” to a “we” culture… back to a bygone era, where neighbors weren't just nice to each other, but relied on each other. As an informed person, it is now your responsibility to help others as best you can. Perhaps this will be with their knowledge and consent; perhaps you will have to be more indirect if they are not yet ready to confront the changes.

And so I close with a personal call to action. Now that you've completed the Crash Course, I hope you'll agree that the challenges we face are not being adequately addressed at the national or international levels. I created the Crash Course specifically to reach people, one at a time, because I hold the belief that some of the risks we face are moving much, much faster than the political process. I created the Crash Course so that you would understand what is going on and to do my very best to help you appreciate that the future could be quite different than the past.

I need your help spreading the word. The Crash Course has been seen by millions of thousands of people all across the globe, without any advertising on my part. This is because people like you have taken the time to pass it along to their friends, relatives, and coworkers. But I want it to be seen by millions. We need to create a tipping point of awareness around these issues.

And so I need your financial help, because I have dedicated four years, and much of my bank account, towards creating this body of work and then making it freely available to all. If you have gotten something from this, if this has touched you or even changed your thinking in an important way, then I hope you'll consider “paying it forward” by making a financial contribution so that somebody else down the line gets to see it. How much? I would suggest an amount that is neither a stretch for you nor embarrassing.

The Crash Course needs to be seen in the halls of power, I need to train others to deliver the message, I need to travel to take the show to venus both large and small, I need to support the development of multiple language translations, and I need to expand the content, shrink it, add new material, and keep the whole effort moving forward.

In whatever way you can contribute to that, even if that's sending the link along to one other person, I need your help. I will do my part if you will do yours. That is my promise to you. Because after all, the future will be defined by what WE do. Thank you for listening.
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by stipe » 25/01/11, 14:14

dedeleco wrote:
There is no question of predicting what date will happen which crash ...
Or even to explain how to avoid it


More if this course "crash course" ' to read its conclusion is addressed to the worried Americans with the last crash and the fear that it is much worse, to try to have an influence to predict it, not to be fooled even more, and to avoid it !!


There is a French version of the site eh;)
On the other hand if you read a little more in detail it is not at all a question of influencing the events at a macroeconomic level, the level of action of each is according to him the safeguard of his buttocks to be and those of his family. it is not a question of avoiding but rather of facing up. And that is not to philosophize in a vacuum.

The last chapter is, am I prepared myself to take in the figure this reservoir which seriously risks to crack?
There is no explanation in the last part on how to avoid the crash, but rather how to prepare for it.
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