Consequences of the economic crisis in figures in 2011

[sen-no-sen]

Unemployment is structural, this is the famous NAIRU:

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taux_de_ch%C3%B4mage_n%27acc%C3%A9l%C3%A9rant_pas_l%27inflation

The political lies result in this desire to want to make believe in an attempt to decrease unemployment ... which does not decrease, because being structural.
Wanting to lower unemployment would consist in completely changing the economic functioning, but that is never the case.

[Ahmed]

I find you hard when you write:

The political lie results from this desire to want to make believe in an attempt to lower unemployment ...

If the public authorities take so much trouble, it would rather prove a lack of determination on the side of the unemployed!

I have proof, because Dick Rivers, in an interview with Le Figaro, affirms, I quote: "Sarkozy likes to be of service, like me ".

[sen-no-sen]

I find you hard when you write:

The political lie results from this desire to want to make believe in an attempt to lower unemployment ...

If the public authorities take so much trouble, it would rather prove a lack of determination on the side of the unemployed!

Mister made in irony!

The lack of determination of the unemployed is a social consequence, there are even those who end up being a chomiste as Coluche said.

Unemployment is structural in the sense that if it were to fall, wages would go up, which would hardly do the business of the ACC, if it were to be too high all the time, it would threaten growth ... it there is therefore a fair balance which is fixed between 10 and 15% (10 if we take into account only the unemployed, 15 if we take into account the struck off, and the almost unemployed).

[Ahmed]

Slim! Unmasked!

Unemployment is certainly a political choice or in any case an advantageous phenomenon, from the point of view that you point out.

It is structural in a deeper way, in the sense that the evolution of economic productivity in the aftermath of the Second World War first rejected the available workforce towards the secondary (peasants or miners [or sons from] to industry), then from industry to services.
The "fourth industrial revolution", that of micro-electronics, made it possible to oust new employees without a way out this time.
The headlong rush that masked the consequences of this dynamic is now impossible.
The fall in industrial earnings finds its temporary compensation in the financialization of the economy.
It is therefore not surprising that the latter, for want of being able to turn to a sluggish primary or secondary sector, comes to practice more and more an archaic form of economy: direct predation of the mass of the population. .
Without a lucid awareness of the real issues *, the increase in levies and the growing discontent that will result, will direct us towards a form of state ... let's say ... painful.

* Cad do not delude ourselves on the possibility of a return to temperate capitalism (for the left), or the advent of moral capitalism (for the right).

[sen-no-sen]

Once again I admire your analysis ... that's exactly what I meant!

* Cad do not delude ourselves on the possibility of a return to temperate capitalism (for the left), or the advent of moral capitalism (for the right).

Here you reveal the entire program of candidates for 2012!
Are you soothsayer?

[Ahmed]

The diviner's job would be complicated in front of imaginative people, fortunately, this is not the case!

An easy prophecy: "Unemployment is the future!"

[Christophe]

More than 5 million people are registered as unemployed in France ... and it is that the "beginning" ... the figure officially given is only that of category A, ie currently around 3 millions ...

In the same family, I ask: http://sarkofrance.blogspot.com/2011/12 ... omeur.html

Last year, some 5,6 million people left the Pôle Emploi lists (categories A, B, C) in metropolitan France. Less than 5% of them had returned to work.

The DARES has just published an interesting study on the evolution of the exits of registrations with Pôle Emploi between 2007 and 2010. As it specifies it, the registrants with Pôle Emploi are only one part of the job seekers.

In 2010, every month, 10% of those registered left the Pôle Emploi lists, compared to 12,5% ​​in 2007.

Unsubscribed with employment ...
Contrary to the Sarkozyen story-telling, the DARES confirms that the employment crisis started BEFORE the stock market then financial crisis of September 2008: it started in March 2008. “The drop was more particularly marked between March 2008 and March 2009 , in connection with the deterioration of the economic situation ”.

DARES also confirms that the resumption of employment has never taken place: the exit rate for resumption of employment has never increased since the election of Sarkozy. On the contrary, less than half of the monthly exits are for resumption of employment (4,6% in 2010), against 6,5% in 2007. In December 2010, this exit rate for resumption of employment was even 4,2%, one of "the lowest rates observed since the start of data availability in June 2002".

Slightly less than a third of these outings involved permanent contracts. Interim collapsed in March. And subsidized contracts, if they have increased, represent a marginal part of these resumes: after peaking at 12% of these exits in 2009, they fell to 9% the following year. This is the direct effect of the drop in credits devoted to employment.

Pôle Emploi only ensured 14% of outgoing recruitments in 2010, against 29% for ... professional and personal relationships and 23% via classified ads outside Pôle Emploi.

Finally, a third of unsubscribed who have found a job ... are still looking for a job. And why ? Because of "dissatisfaction with the employment contract (23%), the duration of the contract (23%), the salary (12%) or the working time (10%)".
... or without work
More than one in two unemployed people left the Pôle Emploi lists without having found a job.

These unemployed unsubscribes break down as follows.

47% were removed "involuntarily" from the Pôle Emploi lists. DARES specifies the cases:

* 31% for failure to update followed by re-registration
* 12% following the "accidental non-renewal" of their request (problem of residence permit, remote updating ...)
* 4% following an administrative cancellation

38% of these unemployed people left “voluntarily” the Pôle Emploi lists:

* 19% went on training
* 15% have interrupted their registration due to illness, vacation, or maternity or parental leave.
* 3% have retired or are exempt from looking for a job.

Finally, the DARES specifies that an additional 6% "simply did not wish to renew their registration on the Pôle Emploi lists (for example because they were no longer compensated)" and that 9% unsubscribed for a " other reason ”such as moving or imprisonment (sic!).

France precarious
This study also provides some elements of analysis on precarious France.

The over 50s: their exit rate for re-employment, already very low before the crisis (3,5%), fell to 2,4% in 4 years. This development is to be compared to the great discourses on the inevitable improvement in the employment of seniors.

The industrial regions: Limousin, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardie and Haute-Normandie show the lowest monthly exit rates for resumption of employment, below 4,0% on average.

Unqualified occupations: the exit rate for resumption of employment has been degraded by 30% in 4 years, to fall to 3,9% (laborers) or 4,7% (manual workers); when that of executives remained above 5%. “The drop in exit rates combined with the influx of new people registered on the Pôle Emploi lists explains the sharp increase in the number of workers seeking employment: + 24,9% between 2007 and 2010 against +5,9 % over the same period for executives. "

[Christophe]

It is only now that the real economy is really affected!

Example with computers: http://pro.clubic.com/actualite-e-busin ... rance.html

Yep, we no longer renew our gear as quickly as before ... it may be all the better for the planet ...

So when will governments react and take strong action to revive the economy? Let them take example from Argentina's economic recovery ! However, the opposite is currently happening ... biiiiIIIp tape ...

Inexorably, deliveries of computers - fixed, portable, general public or professionals - fall. In France, the decline measured by Gartner in the second quarter of 2013 reached 19%.

At a speed twice as high as worldwide, the French PC market also plunged in the second quarter of 2013. According to the latest figures from Gartner, computer sales in France fell 19% compared to the same period a year ago. A total of 2 million units were delivered, compared to 2,7 million in June 2012.

"For the fourth consecutive year, the French market has shown a significant decline and is even among the lowest growth rates in the three main countries of Western Europe," comments the institute. "The ever more frequent replacement of laptops by tablets is one of the factors explaining these poor results," said Isabelle Durand, an analyst with the firm.

The other cause is rather seasonal. Intel, which equips nine out of ten PCs worldwide with its processors, is in the process of migrating to Haswell microarchitecture. As a result, distributors are reducing their inventory to accommodate the next computers equipped with the new processors.

In the second quarter, laptops accounted for almost two thirds of sales in France. With around 1,3 million units delivered, this segment was not spared, it fell by 21% over one year. In this set Gartner observes that the Ultrabooks, popularized by Intel, are the only ones to have progressed. The institute does not specify their growth rate, but indicates that they weigh 13% of laptops.

(...)

[sen-no-sen]

So when will governments react and take strong action to revive the economy?

At the global level, the solution is not in the recovery, which is already largely overvalued, but in the economic reorganization.

the cycles of recovery and then of economic slowdowns are clearly linked to the concept of liberalism: To maximize the flow of trade (and profits!), politicians (read: economists) open wide the borders.

Except like a physical flow (water for example), when the diameter of the conduit is too large (borders), turbulence occurs inside it, causing de facto slowing downs, ensues then a particularly unstable acceleration and deceleration phenomenon ....

This is exactly what happens with the liberal model: acceleration, then deceleration, the whole being very unstable and leading to a chaotic outcome ... (unemployment, famines, war ...)

So the solution is something like this: protectionism, economic decline and a return to reality!

[Did67]

Yep, we no longer renew our gear as quickly as before ... it may be all the better for the planet ...

So when will governments react and take strong action to revive the economy?

Why do you want to change computers if it works?

The "crisis", with us, is not yet "decrease"! [Moscovici has just announced growth between + 0,1% and - 0,1% for France, in 2013]

The social damage, the tensions on certain essential services (energy, emergency medical services ...), it is something else: it is a model of management / distribution of the wealth produced which is bankrupt. A society in crisis, yes. It is the lack of consensus around a project on what "living well" means ...

Have you noticed that footballers have never sold so expensive !!! (in France) ... Why ??? Because faced with the sidereal void of many existences, through derivative products, they make those who no longer have other dreams dream, and win fortunes for their owners. What a better example of the nonsense of this "economy"! [I am someone !! I exist !! because I wear the branded jersey of my idol who is someone because he earns a fortune, sleeps with a model, drives a Porsche ...; jersey produced for 1 euro in Bangladesh and sold for 100 in Paris]. I am pessimistic about the future of this world. He goes into the wall. And he accelerates (his stupidity!). You surprise me that it will hurt.