French politics: what future for Macron (and France) and why?

[Macro]

Anger is brewing in the street!

Since the advent of the Fifth Republic, it is one of the governments whose fate is very uncertain. How do you see the rest?

In Poitier, the Town Hall was stormed, the portrait of President Macron was taken down, then trampled ...

Meanwhile, in the courtyard, the people were shouting loud and clear:

- “Revolution!”
- “Revolution!”
- “Revolution!”

Then his portrait was then torn up and thrown to the people through the upstairs window ...

These facts have symbolic significance!

But where is France going, where are we going, what will happen to Pdt Macron?

While watching the video…. The people in the courtyard ... Was far from filling this one….

Poitiers is an agglomeration of more than 130 inhabitants including 000 students ... It is where our beautiful rebellious youth have nothing to lose ??? In Palavas? on the costa brava?

When the RG are going to land at the guy with the ponytail, the plump who holds up the photo and the guy in the yellow vest…. I'm afraid they will spend the next decade regretting their actions ...

I have a colleague who had participated in "riots" of this kind in the last century…. Well… It went without violence but suddenly… He saw a whole series of checks on social organizations, the public treasury…. Although he was white, he could no longer walk around town without being controlled by the police, and in 80% of cases he found himself questioned at the police station, in a prison cell, at least he was fined, an impoundment of his vehicle for reasons more benign than the others…. He paid for almost 10 years with seizures on wages (his girlfriend defrauded the allowances declaring herself a student alone while she lived with him ect….)

I can guarantee you that he buried his revolt well….

[Janic]

macro

Poitiers is an agglomeration of more than 130 inhabitants including 000 students ... It is where our beautiful rebellious youth have nothing to lose ??? In Palavas? on the costa brava?

Not difficult, most of them have already returned to popa moman; the remaining students fear for their future future, so they shut up and get injected with the poisons knowing that very, very few will be sick with AIDS ... sorry covid! And their "freedom" found to go and infect themselves with the vaccine to reach the threshold of coverage expected by the government and to be able to party and fuck without an Islamist mask.

[thibr]

there is no box nothing is going to happen and it will not come again

[Obamot]

Anger is brewing in the street!

Since the advent of the Fifth Republic, it is one of the governments whose fate is very uncertain. How do you see the rest?

In Poitier, the Town Hall was stormed, the portrait of President Macron was taken down, then trampled ...

Meanwhile, in the courtyard, the people were shouting loud and clear:

- “Revolution!”
- “Revolution!”
- “Revolution!”

Then his portrait was then torn up and thrown to the people through the upstairs window ...

These facts have symbolic significance!

But where is France going, where are we going, what will happen to Pdt Macron?

While watching the video…. The people in the courtyard ... Was far from filling this one….

Poitiers is an agglomeration of more than 130 inhabitants including 000 students ... It is where our beautiful rebellious youth have nothing to lose ??? In Palavas? on the costa brava?

When the RG are going to land at the guy with the ponytail, the plump who holds up the photo and the guy in the yellow vest…. I'm afraid they will spend the next decade regretting their actions ...

I have a colleague who had participated in "riots" of this kind in the last century…. Well… It went without violence but suddenly… He saw a whole series of checks on social organizations, the public treasury…. Although he was white, he could no longer walk around town without being controlled by the police, and in 80% of cases he found himself questioned at the police station, in a prison cell, at least he was fined, an impoundment of his vehicle for reasons more benign than the others…. He paid for almost 10 years with seizures on wages (his girlfriend defrauded the allowances declaring herself a student alone while she lived with him ect….)

I can guarantee you that he buried his revolt well….

Yes, these are interesting points of view.
Note that I fear for him that the young people who made him elect, will no longer be up his sleeve in 2022, those who are in the maneuver in the video, it is indeed the young people “have you seen me” ( the “y” generation, smartphones and selfies ...) who were part of his “fervent supporters yesterday” ... and it was even intergenerational ... Just like the demonstrations, where discontent has won over all classes of the population , and is no longer satisfied with the only “yellow vests” which were very scattered. Another support for weight lost in advance: seniors, not only because of its calamitous management of the crisis, but because of the pension system. And finally, the population is just fed up with him and his puppet government. I could be wrong but I therefore do not see him going up the slope so easily, people are not crazy, they have seen that there were things that were not right in this health crisis!

The only things in his favor, and not the least, is the absence of a charismatic candidate and the press which has not let him go so much.

[Macro]

The young people I meet (the relationships of my 2 sons)… .Rather come from the middle class… And they have all given in to the sirens of the health pass. There are even some whose first names have Maghrebian consonances .... Well ... They are rather on the right .... To the right of Hitler as Coluche said (it is mainly because they are fed up with not being able to walk around without being attacked or racketeering by the scum) ... But they do not recognize themselves especially in the movement of the navy .... For the most part, they were old enough to vote in the last presidential ... They did not 'were not moved… For want of recognizing themselves in the ideas presented by the proposed candidates… I think alas, that we will still have the right to a president elected out of spite… So in this little game… .Macron could well make the ideal candidate … After… I can't say that I hope to be wrong… .I haven't expected anything from politicians of all stripes for a very long time… I have been part of the non-voters of the second round since…. that I have the right to vote ...

[Janic]

And finally, the population is just fed up with him and his puppet government.

all the puppet governments which follow one another are themselves nothing but puppets manipulated by those who really hold power and who are not themselves on the front of the stage. You can compare it to companies that yesterday were run by a concrete individual, against whom disgruntled employees could grumble. Today they have disappeared in favor of ethereal shareholders, intangible, unassailable, because representing this system where what presides is intention, the spirit of profit which is that of these big investors, but also of these thousands of scholars who invest for a larger retirement, to the detriment of those who need a job to survive.

I could be wrong but I therefore do not see him going up the slope so easily, people are not crazy, they have seen that there were things that were not right in this health crisis!

not crazy? In any case servile when this covid is used precisely to assess this servility.

The only things in his favor, and not the least, is the absence of a charismatic candidate and the press which has not let him go so much.

no matter what, in the puppeteer theater, it's the puppeteer who makes the story, not the audience!

[Rajqawee]

This is how I see it. The political situation will depend to a great extent on the health situation. This is almost the only news item covered in the past 18 months.

Block of scenarios "it's going so much better, napu d'covid"
The epidemic is declining very sharply. No more cases, no more hospitals, no more shifts (understand: not a lot.) The government gradually unleashes restrictive measures as the presidential election approaches, which puts it in a good position. administrator. The health pass is lightened or even eliminated (as "promised"), to take up a public health approach. Macron has every chance of being reelected because he can tell his story "we have succeeded in beating the covid thanks to our measures"

Block of scenarios "it's going to come, not worse"
Perhaps the most heated scenario. The most dangerous. The one that would, I think, roll back the government. Namely, despite the compulsory vaccination and high coverage rates, that does not change ... not much compared to June 2021. Few shifts, few hospitals, but still many cases. There, the story is difficult for people to swallow:
-if you don't change anything, people understand that there is no tool to manage the epidemic. And so they're going to have to stick with a pass and measures until ... until we know nothing about it. Very difficult to accept (people only accepted the measurements because there were new horizons)
-if you undo measures, people understand that their application in the first place was not logical

In my opinion in this context, the government is never doing very well, and I do not see real Macron.

Block of scenarios "it starts again in balls"
In the fall, a new episode in the covid-painful series, everything started to rise again. There, the government can continue to tell its story "it would have been worse if we had not vaccinated" and despite everything, use measures to curb the epidemic (even if that is not possible) and I think that it remains accepted by people.
Possibility of being re-elected remains important.

Dissolution of the assembly? Never. It is the only tool that remains for this government, the "majority" of the assembly. He's stuck on everything else.
Withdrawal of the pass by the constitutional council: who knows. It would be nice, but I see it as unlikely. I think that what would be more likely is that the text is rejected because its conditions of applicability are rotten, and therefore that would simply delay things.
Macron who gives us an "I understand you" and who withdraws some of the measures, yes, it is possible, if the wind of science turns too much against him (voices like that of the president of the national council of order of Italian doctors, other European voices, the WHO, a massive resignation of the scientific council ...).

[Petrus]

I think that the measures which were in any case inapplicable will be abandoned, but the health pass will not be completely abolished, they have not put in place such a means of social control to abandon it.
And then it's a good way to divide the population and create a diversion for the coming economic crisis.
When his re-election, given the absence of a leader on the right and the mess on the left, we are likely to have a 2017 bis.

[Obamot]

Yes, but ... It will depend on how far the street will go, right?

This is how I see it. The political situation will depend to a great extent on the health situation. This is almost the only news item covered in the past 18 months.

Block of scenarios "it's going so much better, napu d'covid"
The epidemic is declining very sharply. No more cases, no more hospitals, no more shifts (understand: not a lot.) The government gradually unleashes restrictive measures as the presidential election approaches, which puts it in a good position. administrator. The health pass is lightened or even eliminated (as "promised"), to take up a public health approach. Macron has every chance of being reelected because he can tell his story "we have succeeded in beating the covid thanks to our measures"

Block of scenarios "it's going to come, not worse"
Perhaps the most heated scenario. The most dangerous. The one that would, I think, roll back the government. Namely, despite the compulsory vaccination and high coverage rates, that does not change ... not much compared to June 2021. Few shifts, few hospitals, but still many cases. There, the story is difficult for people to swallow:
-if you don't change anything, people understand that there is no tool to manage the epidemic. And so they're going to have to stick with a pass and measures until ... until we know nothing about it. Very difficult to accept (people only accepted the measurements because there were new horizons)
-if you undo measures, people understand that their application in the first place was not logical

In my opinion in this context, the government is never doing very well, and I do not see real Macron.

Block of scenarios "it starts again in balls"
In the fall, a new episode in the covid-painful series, everything started to rise again. There, the government can continue to tell its story "it would have been worse if we had not vaccinated" and despite everything, use measures to curb the epidemic (even if that is not possible) and I think that it remains accepted by people.
Possibility of being re-elected remains important.

Dissolution of the assembly? Never. It is the only tool that remains for this government, the "majority" of the assembly. He's stuck on everything else.
Withdrawal of the pass by the constitutional council: who knows. It would be nice, but I see it as unlikely. I think that what would be more likely is that the text is rejected because its conditions of applicability are rotten, and therefore that would simply delay things.
Macron who gives us an "I understand you" and who withdraws some of the measures, yes, it is possible, if the wind of science turns too much against him (voices like that of the president of the national council of order of Italian doctors, other European voices, the WHO, a massive resignation of the scientific council ...).

Well, and manipulate the stats well to deceive the crowds, they have all been doing this from the start very well (deliberately or not), whether it is by the pawns placed by the pharmas at the key points for a long time, and / or whether it is a political will mixed with a high dose of incompetence and other schemes for the purpose of recovery. (I don't believe in a conspiracy but in block battles via spheres of influence)

The scenario block “it's going so much better”Should probably prevail and, if so, will be“ super easy ”to unroll ... (thanks to the manipulation of the stats) except that there will be very big collisions (improbable implementation VS big popular resistance)

The big difficulty that I see is that if the pressure from the streets does not decrease - and the strike of hospital staff to come will undoubtedly make the situation worse - people will be in a great hurry to get out. and will not wait “a government-friendly calendar window”To let our guard down. And as in October, influenza infections will inevitably start to rise again, the coercion around the health pass and “control” will start again. And the winter will be very, very hot in this case. So shift in certain view towards the scenario “it goes back in balls” authoritarian drift and stigmatization of the crowds to come is what will emerge very probably!

Suddenly there is a risk of farting very strongly: September massive introduction of the pass with an increase in cases due to returning from vacation, then October reinforcement of the stigma with the progressive overcrowding of sheaves and decrease in the number of hospital staff.

That's roughly, without being too mistaken, put together a lot of ingredients to make it fart even harder, right?

[Janic]

in my humble opinion, the french presidency only serves as a stepping stone to go higher - and he does not really hide it) and it would be inconsistent by redoubling such a catastrophic mandate for france. On the other hand, at the European level, he is seen as a firm individual in his decisions.