Ahmed wrote:My approach may seem parallel to that of
poutine up to a certain point, in the sense that it is here the actualizer of a major geostrategic change which disturbs the old conceptions of the balance of power with which the old powers find it difficult to accommodate... However, it himself remains a prisoner of forces that go beyond him and remains globally on a classic approach, simply updated...
I see that when you make an effort to look at things other than through the small end of the telescope, things go better, although the acute poutinitis persists!
Here are the two messages that motivated me:
- that of
Guy:
What are the diplomatic conditions for peace? After almost 20 years of various provocations, on both sides, annexations here, manipulations there, provocations, violence, increasingly huge lies and mutual aggression, the situation is desperate but is in my eyes only the oh so visible phenomenon of a global geopolitical reorganization which is in its infancy.
- that of
Dede2002, speaking too infrequently, probably because he only speaks when he has something to say? Unusual attitude among the other members...
In my opinion, the war is not where you think it is. It generates a tremendous opportunity to increase abstract value dear to our system, not only by the rising profits of the oil companies, but also by the arms factories which have jobs, and the prospect of the reconstruction of all that is broken, which will motivate many credits!
It remains a tad classic as an analysis, but we are already in much more substantial...
There are indeed several focal points for analyzing the situation: from very close we are forced to adopt the point of view of the camp that we choose to observe, with a little more distance we can try to discern the issues present, with an ad hoc focal point, it is possible to see the context in which all this takes place. This last method is more satisfactory, but remains insufficient because all the belligerents or their supporters, although in disagreement, are nevertheless in the same context of competition (in the sense that they have the same criteria of judgment on this context, only the interests diverge). From this last point of view it is also possible to produce a coherent analysis, but where the rub is that it is never possible (and this is true at all levels) to judge a system with the criteria or references which are its own. It is this bias that makes it possible to maintain irremovable divergent opinions: everyone is "right" within the system chosen by them.
It is therefore necessary to choose a sufficiently "solid" exteriority to get out of this bad situation; For a long time, God was the reference, but we know that this is not operative and has only postponed the original dissensions in another sphere: moving a problem is not solving it... Classical philosophy invoked " Sirius' point of view", simple wishful thinking* without further details...
* In two syllables, otherwise it's a post!
work in progress ...
I would like to give some modest points that I have been able to observe, I take it not as the first truth but as a trend. Being only moderately able to push reasoning as far as you, Sen-No-Sen and even Remundo...
But at least I'm trying by breaking eggs
Putin is aware of the limitations he faces as a leader, having experienced them before.
What is “revolutionary” in his approach is what he himself declares: “
each action leads to an interaction, and it is better to beware of intervening too much to end up in a situation worse than the previous state” (or something)... Pdt Mitterand had said something similar (but it was a warning, here we are already in the application of a method).
The Russians are therefore trying to do "almost nothing" to avoid backlash - hence the flamboyant blow of the BRICS which (I repeat myself) was only the highlighting of a de facto situation, already existing in more than one title — so it has “
almost nothing done” nor either “virtually nothing produced” as an immediate effect, to obtain a major awareness at the planetary level, towards future developments which will only be slow and progressive (at this moment accelerated by the war ...) ...
So yes, he is a kind of updater: very well seen. But no, in accordance with his narrative, “
he does not seek to make a major change," but rather "
prevent one from occurring in a way that is too impactful” (NWO whose goal would be a redistribution of the cards with sleight of hand to dilute the debt or whatever) or at least avoid continuing to suffer the shelving of most of the humanity of the major decisions that concern them and in which they could not take part until then...
On the other hand, and this is very clear — and this proves that I am not “pro” or “anti” — Putin eventually makes a mistake by seeking to send Westerners back to their responsibilities (and currently, it seems that each time 'they don't understand, he's tightening the screw...) because even if he thinks so, it can hardly have any therapeutic virtue, since for 30 years we locked ourselves in our logic and it was we who gave the lessons!
Conversely, this places climbing in Ukraine as a real paradox in the face of its narrative. And then I really want to believe that he was forced into it and that the Russians no longer had (and could no longer have) confidence in the West or any other choice, it is perfectly plausible (and proved again this year in April, when we learned that France itself had violated the Minsk Accords in 2014, by already supplying arms to Ukraine! Yes, that's crazy...!
On the other hand, although of a subtle nature, one should not imagine Putin making long reflections and specious discussions, he presides over a great country and he is rather confronted with the dictatorship of the real (especially these times).
I would say at the moment that the European leaders are completely left behind in the face of international law, and I would almost say that there is only one captain left and that if I were to go to the height of irony, I would almost say that this are the Russians”
who manage the western situation by proxy”(*) to prevent us from driving ourselves beyond the point of no return (which we cross every day...) ... conditions that we have created and recreate every day, so much are we / were so confident and arrogant...
(*) The Russians for six months, have (in particular) continued to:
— honor their gas contracts, despite the mad hostility of Westerners...
— honor their financial obligations, despite the mad initiative to confiscate Russian assets in Western banks.
— turning a blind eye to NATO's Western military presence in Ukraine and the deliveries of heavy weapons with assistance!
etc
