Since 2018, Lebanon is gradually sinking into collapse. As with a crash test, we have reconstructed the thread of the crisis, to better understand the mechanisms of a collapse that could soon affect France.
Collapsology ... kezako?
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
The collapse of Lebanon: open-air laboratory of the collapse
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
The ruin of the French military-industrial complex should be inspired by the Taliban in terms of low-tech naval investment.
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- sen-no-sen
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
It's done well for our arms dealers ... we get what we deserve.
From memory we gave the Russians a nice thumbs up with the (non) sale of Mistral helicopter carriers ... all this to hand them over to the Egyptians, a great democratic country!
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affaire_des_Mistral
From memory we gave the Russians a nice thumbs up with the (non) sale of Mistral helicopter carriers ... all this to hand them over to the Egyptians, a great democratic country!
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affaire_des_Mistral
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"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
Understanding everything about collapsology and collapse ... an excellent synthesis https://issues.fr/comprendre-collapsologie-effondrement
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
izentrop wrote:Understanding everything about collapsology and collapse ... an excellent synthesis https://issues.fr/comprendre-collapsologie-effondrement
let's say that the article makes a good presentation of all the fantasies and fears linked to the collapse, but without really pointing out the contradictions and even less helping to decide between what is probable and what is improbable.
A simple example, if we compare
For Yves Cochet, ex-Minister of Ecology, “the collapse is the process at the end of which basic needs (water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc.) are no longer provided (at a cost reasonable) to a majority of the population by services regulated by law .... According to the US Energy Information Administration, world oil production peaked in November 2018 with 84,5 million barrels / day. Peak conventional oil had already been reached in 2008, but the massive use of shale gas in the United States had made it possible to delay the deadline.
In a Shift Project report commissioned by the French Army, the Think Thank indicates that there are only 9 years left before oil becomes a luxury good. After 2030, even new discoveries of oil fields will not be able to prevent a drop in global production capacity with its share of economic consequences.
...
ves Cochet is one of the figures of collapsology who advances the most on the post-collapse world. From his ownership in Brittany, he is preparing for the end of the Internet, oil and water supply. In an interview for the media Brut. , which peaks at almost a million views, he explains how the world will change in the next decade.
de
IPCC reports continue to warn governments of the need to act as quickly as possible to deal with the consequences of global warming. If international treaties are signed, in particular the Paris Agreement on the Climate, the reality is quite different. The vast majority of signatory countries have not honored their commitment.
The most pessimistic scenarios become the most realistic prospects. According to experts, if humanity maintains this trajectory, the temperature in 2100 could rise to 5,7 ° C. In other words, the planet would become uninhabitable for humans.
we immediately see the contradiction, since certain scenarios predict a near collapse, while the scenario presented as "the most realistic" is on the contrary a trajectory maintained until 2100. If it collapses in the next decade, it cannot have a sustained trajectory!
the 5,7 ° C scenario is also contradictory with:
A + 3 ° C scenario would have irreversible consequences on the climate with the melting of glaciers and ice caps (releasing the carbon stored in the permafrost), a significant rise in water levels, the migration of hundreds of millions of people and the multiplication of climatic disasters (droughts, hurricanes, etc.).
how can we maintain a trajectory up to 5,7 ° C if it starts to collapse at 3 ° C?
The problem is that all of these scenarios are based on fantasies and not on quantitative analysis of the data. For example, the exhaustion of fossil resources is a reality, but the accepted figure is 100 years of proven reserves. It is therefore both incompatible with a rapid collapse in the years to come, but also incompatible with a growth trajectory until the end of the XNUMXst century. Both are in fact improbable. Most likely, it is a slow decline that begins in a decade or so, which is neither a brutal collapse nor a catastrophic RC.
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
As is his habit, the learned dog to use real data, to pervert them to reassure himself, to fool himself? to deceive us?
It is quite understandable fear of the end, fear of death or more cynically, of mercantile interests to be protected?
Behind a screen, we'll never really know who ABC2019 is. A finished garbage or a pitiful being?
To avoid tipping points, to reassure himself by claiming that the data are contradictory (wrongly *), he carefully rejects any measure that would allow the collapse to be modulated in any way positively. (not to avoid it, alas) and in doing so, amplifies the consequences of the collapse to come.
Fear makes one incoherent, inconsistent, his speech reassures only the superficial, he draws us ever closer to collapse.
It is the criminal side of people in denial, sowers of doubts, sowers of lies, like those who have praised us that tobacco, asbestos, sugar, pesticides, petroleum, the climate, it is was "no problem".
* the scientific data are not contradictory, they are curves which intersect. the survival instinct is great, it is not because a resource will be more scarce, such as oil, that humans will stop consuming it.
It will be: increasingly scarce resources AND an ever more intense RCA, no contradiction.
It is also not grasping the 3 causes of the collapse: scarcity of resources, degradation of natural assets (free services offered by nature) and increase in the world population.
It's not grasping what collapse is: the fall brutal of the world population due to the combination of the 3 previous factors.
It is not grasping what a point of irreversible switch.
It is not enough to turn down the heat under the lobster pot to bring it back to life.
Irreversible processes will be set in motion and the world population will fall, no matter what.
Yes after the fall brutal and irreversible demographics, a new cruising speed will be sustainable.
Zero point Mr ABC2019, you have not learned your lesson.
It is quite understandable fear of the end, fear of death or more cynically, of mercantile interests to be protected?
Behind a screen, we'll never really know who ABC2019 is. A finished garbage or a pitiful being?
To avoid tipping points, to reassure himself by claiming that the data are contradictory (wrongly *), he carefully rejects any measure that would allow the collapse to be modulated in any way positively. (not to avoid it, alas) and in doing so, amplifies the consequences of the collapse to come.
Fear makes one incoherent, inconsistent, his speech reassures only the superficial, he draws us ever closer to collapse.
It is the criminal side of people in denial, sowers of doubts, sowers of lies, like those who have praised us that tobacco, asbestos, sugar, pesticides, petroleum, the climate, it is was "no problem".
* the scientific data are not contradictory, they are curves which intersect. the survival instinct is great, it is not because a resource will be more scarce, such as oil, that humans will stop consuming it.
It will be: increasingly scarce resources AND an ever more intense RCA, no contradiction.
It is also not grasping the 3 causes of the collapse: scarcity of resources, degradation of natural assets (free services offered by nature) and increase in the world population.
It's not grasping what collapse is: the fall brutal of the world population due to the combination of the 3 previous factors.
It is not grasping what a point of irreversible switch.
It is not enough to turn down the heat under the lobster pot to bring it back to life.
Irreversible processes will be set in motion and the world population will fall, no matter what.
Yes after the fall brutal and irreversible demographics, a new cruising speed will be sustainable.
Zero point Mr ABC2019, you have not learned your lesson.
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- GuyGadeboisTheBack
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
humus wrote:Zero point Mr ABC2019, you have not learned your lesson.
It's maddening to see how poor Bouzo is telling more and more nonsense on all subjects ...
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
humus wrote:Like he usually does,
as usual, you answer with a litany of insults without answering on the substance.
Obviously it is contradictory to predict a collapse in the coming years, and at the same time to predict a continuous growth trajectory until 2100, you really have to be completely autistic to be able to deny that.
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To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
- GuyGadeboisTheBack
- Econologue expert
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- Registration: 10/12/20, 20:52
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Re: Collapsology ... kezako?
ABC2019 wrote:humus wrote:Like he usually does, it has selective reading, the background bothers you, you don't take it into account, it's kinda easy
ABC2019 wrote:as usual, you answer with a litany of insults without answering on the substance.
Lies! What insults?
ABC2019 wrote:Obviously it's contradictory to predict a collapse in the coming years, and at the same time to predict a continuous growth trajectory until 2100, you really have to be completely autistic to be able to deny that.
Above all, you have to be very stupid to think that this is the reality described by collapsologists. No one says such cartoons except you.
Sigmoid and not continuous growth.
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