by Yves Cochet
The daily or weekly fluctuations in the price of a barrel of crude on the New York market are due to a multitude of factors of very different origin and scope.
Commentators usually cite OPEC debits, the state of US commercial stocks, the weather, speculators, terrorism, low refining capacity, the situation in Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, etc. in Venezuela, in Russia ...
But these "explanations" seem valid regardless of the height of the price of a barrel 30 dollars, 40 dollars, 50 dollars…, whereas we lack the main explanation on the height itself, 60 dollars today. Three decisive factors are driving crude oil prices upwards in the long term: the geological scarcity of conventional oil (inexpensive to extract), the entry into a world of terrorism and permanent wars for the control of oil, the sharp increase in demand. due to Asian growth and continued Western consumption. It is the anticipation of this last factor by traders that is now making prices soar.