Syrota report: outlook for the “general public” vehicle by 2030 by Jean SYROTA.
Philippe HIRTZMAN (General Mining Council).
Roman BEAUME (Polytechnic)
Jean-Loup RENT (Centre for Strategic Analysis)
Hervé POULIQUEN (Strategic Analysis Centre)
Denise RAVET (Strategic Analysis Centre)
Philippe ROSSINOT (Strategic Analysis Centre)
This task originated in a request from the Minister of Higher Education and Research on transport and mobility. The Director General of the Centre for Strategic Analysis, an agency under the authority of the Secretary of State in charge, to the Prime Minister, forecasting, evaluation of public policies and development of the digital economy, instructed the March 14 2008, Jean SYROTA driving a specific reflection on the vehicle of the future.
This reflection aims both to consider the possible technologies of the different vehicles of the future, on the other hand to offer policy recommendations to prepare the future of the automotive sector.
Given the respective proportions of the different categories of vehicles sold each year, the scope is deliberately focused on the particular vehicle "general public" to the exclusion of commercial vehicles - heavy or light - of public transport vehicles and captive fleets for professional use.
The mission, however, takes into account any subcategories of urban vehicles (individual transport, light delivery and distribution) likely to experience the same trends as those of "mainstream" vehicles.
The outlook for withholding part reflection cover the period up to about 2030, due substantially corresponding to that of total renewal of existing vehicle fleets. It seemed risky to project over a longer term, putting himself in the field of foresight, given the uncertainties attached to the major technological and societal changes.
The mission looked at the associated infrastructure and logistics problems, to the extent that, by nature, the generalization of a type of vehicle can only be considered accompanied by an energy distribution network. corresponding (supply, security, etc.).
The European dimension of issues, public policy and foreign industrial experiments are widely discussed in the following analyzes.
This report, prepared under the responsibility of Jean SYROTA was achieved thanks to a researcher (PhD student) of the Polytechnic, four heads of mission of the Strategic Analysis Centre (Secretariat of State to the Prime Minister for Strategic Studies, evaluation of public policies and development of the digital economy), and the support (integration of the report) a member of the General Council for mining (Ministry of economy, industry and employment).
Learn more: read the discussion about our forums on the fact the car of the future