In its report on “World Energy Outlook 2004” released on October 26, the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a picture of the energy sector in the world for the next 10 years.
World energy demand is expected to increase by nearly 60% by 2030 "The world is not yet short of oil", estimates the organization, for which in general the resources are "more than sufficient " for
deal with future demand.
But soaring oil and gas prices, growing instability in supply routes, and rising carbon dioxide emissions are signs of "considerable unrest in the world of finance." energy, ”adds Claude Mandil, the executive director of the IEA, an organization that brings together industrialized oil-consuming countries.
The IEA considers the price of oil to be a "considerable source of uncertainty". The scenario of a high price, that is to say a barrel at 35 dollars on average, would lead to a decrease in demand of 15% by 2030, which corresponds to current consumption in the United States. . Note that the current price of a barrel of oil in New York is around $ 56.6 ...
Between now and 2030, fossil fuels, foremost among which oil with 121 Mbj (million barrels / day), will account for 85% of the increase in global demand, according to the IEA. Two-thirds of the increase will come from demand from emerging countries, such as China and India.
Natural gas consumption is expected to double by 2030, while the share of coal and nuclear power is expected to decline.
A possible alternative scenario?
Global demand could be 10% lower if there is “vigorous policy action” for environmental protection and energy security.
In this case, the dependence of consumer countries on the Middle East would be reduced. Thus, the demand for oil would decrease by a volume equal to the current production of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. Similarly, dioxide emissions would be 16% lower than the baseline scenario, which is what the United States and Canada are currently emitting.
However, it seems very difficult to believe in such a scenario given the inertia of our societies.