American researchers are publishing in the journal Science the results of simulations of the evolution of the Earth's climate over a period of a little over a century (from 1880 to 2003), carried out using the computer model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
By playing mainly on the increase in greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin (carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.), the team was able to simulate the current imbalance in the Earth's energy balance, a simulation consistent with known data.
Now our planet would absorb 0,85 (+ or - 0,15) more solar power per square meter than it reflects. This figure, corroborated in the model used by measurements of temperature at depth and sea level over the past 10 years, is worrying. According to scientists at NASA, Columbia University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilize today, the climate would gain 0,6 ° C anyway. the end of the century due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, which are slower to warm up. In addition, we must expect an acceleration of the melting of continental ice and the rise in water levels, already initiated.
Currently, this level is rising at a rate of 3,1 centimeters per decade, twice as high as it was a hundred years ago.
LAT 29/04/05 (Scientists find climate change 'smoking gun')