The warming calendar

Scientists present a climate change calendar

Keywords: warming, climate, planing, evolution, dates, estimates

On February 2, 2005, a scientist from the German Institute for Climate Change Research in Potsdam - the largest German research institute in this field - presented a detailed timeline of the effects that climate change is likely to have on the planet.

At a conference in Exeter, Britain, Bill Hare outlined the global dangers of rising temperatures to species, ecosystems, agriculture, water and socioeconomic conditions . Developed from a synthesis of recent large-scale academic studies, Dr Hare's calendar shows that the effects of climate change are expected to amplify rapidly as the average global temperature rises.

According to Dr Hare, our civilizations will face immense dangers, ecological refugees crossing borders due to a lack of food and water. This is especially true for developing countries, he added.

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Today, global temperatures are already 0,7 ° C higher than pre-industrial times. Over the next twenty-five years, when this temperature difference reaches 1 ° C, some ecosystems like the rainforests of Queensland, Australia, will begin to suffer.

A 1 to 2 ° C increase in temperatures will cause fires and insect infestations in the Mediterranean region. In the United States, rivers could become too hot for trout and salmon, and in the Arctic, melting ice will threaten polar bears and walruses.

Above a rise of 3 ° C, expected by 2070, the effects will be catastrophic as more than 3,3 billion people, or half of the world's population, will live in countries that are expected to experience serious losses. of harvests. In many countries, the fall in GDP will be significant and the damage to the environment will be enormous, predicts Dr Hare.

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Dubbed 'Avoiding dangerous climate change', this two-day conference was organized at the call of British Prime Minister Tony Blair as part of a UK effort to raise the issue of climate change to the top of the agenda. the agenda of the UK Presidency of the G8 and the EU. The objective of the conference is to develop scientific understanding of the long-term implications of climate change, the importance of stabilization goals and the options for achieving those goals. It also aims to encourage research and international scientific debate on these issues.

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