The warming calendar

Scientists present a climate change calendar

Keywords: warming, climate, planing, evolution, dates, estimates

On February 2, 2005, a scientist from the German Climate Change Research Institute in Postdam - Germany's largest research institute in this field - presented a detailed schedule of the effects that climate change is likely to have on the planet.

During a conference in Exeter, Britain, Bill Hare exposed the global dangers of rising temperatures for species, ecosystems, agriculture, water and socio-economic conditions . Developed from a synthesis of large-scale recent university studies, Dr. Hare's calendar shows that the effects of climate change are expected to intensify rapidly as the average global temperature increases.

According to Dr. Hare, our civilizations will face immense dangers, ecological refugees crossing borders because of a lack of food and water. This is especially true for developing countries, he added.

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Currently, global temperatures are already 0,7 ° C above pre-industrial levels. Over the next twenty-five years, when this temperature difference reaches 1 ° C, certain ecosystems such as the tropical forests of Queensland, Australia, will begin to suffer.

A 1-2 ° C increase in temperature will cause fires and insect invasions in the Mediterranean region. In the United States, rivers could become too hot for trout and salmon, and in the Arctic, melting ice will threaten polar bears and walruses.

Above a rise of 3 ° C, expected by 2070, the effects will be catastrophic since more than 3,3 billion people, or half the world population, will live in countries that are expected to experience serious losses of crops. In many countries, the fall in GDP will be considerable and the damage to the environment will be enormous, predicts Dr Hare.

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Called "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change", this two-day conference was organized at the call of British Prime Minister Tony Blair as part of a UK effort to raise the issue of climate change to the top of the agenda. the agenda of the British presidency of the G8 and the EU. The objective of the conference is to develop scientific understanding of the long-term implications of climate change, the importance of stabilization targets and the options for achieving them. It also aims to encourage research and an international scientific debate on these questions.

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