Here is an answer to the black folder of renewable energies published in Science and Life in March 2008.
Here is the debate about this folder which is at the origin of the following article.
Science and Life mars 2008: black folder of green energies
This dossier makes quite positive judgments about the potential of the energies
particularly in the 3 part devoted to innovation but
on 3 points:
- a title that completely contradicts the above
- a misunderstanding unfortunately too frequent in this country on the dynamics "research - market" which results in a too clear cut between the markets of today on the one hand and research
especially industrial of the other (the difference of tone between the parts 1 and 3 are very revealing of this state of fact)
- a few debatable presentations and comments on specific data which may bias the reader's judgment.
1) The title
The title could be understood if the position of renewable energy promoters was to cover almost all energy needs by 2030 or 2050 as suggested by the introductory question of part 1.
This is a position that is not defended by anyone (seriously, I mean). The fact that no possible solution today (nuclear, fossil with sequestration CO2, saving final energies and renewables) presents himself as one can answer the question shows that the real problem is to appreciate the potential of each (see 33 of our remarks for RE) in a context of diversification perceived further as the best response to security of supply.
2) The market research link
Reducing the costs of modular value chains such as renewable energies in general and solar photovoltaics in particular is achieved in the progressive manner indicated on the curve below. Breakthrough innovations, incremental innovations, serial effects and learning (technical and commercial) come together to lead to success. On the contrary, a centralized sector, such as the nuclear of the future, for example, implies the culmination of a vast research effort before deploying on a market.
The colonization of successive markets niches is inoperative in this case while it is the main challenge in terms of industrial competition for renewable energy. This dynamic justifies the rapid emergence in France of a properly sized market today, beyond the immediate impact on balance sheets.
This is what Denmark, Germany and Spain have understood for wind power, Japan and Germany for solar photovoltaic. It is not too late to do well in France to give body to the hopes placed in the 3 part of your file.
Read more and end in Right of reply to the EnR file of Science and Life to download here